40/70 Benchmark

Ida, though not as intense a hurricane, reminded me a lot of Camille in both track and extreme inland flooding far away from landfall. Sometimes these TC setups over the ECONUS can lead to much greater loss of life than the initial impact at landfall. Yea, Camille was def. a solid analog.

2008 is def. high on my list, along with 1975.

Just remember that mother nature is very skilled at keeping the ledger balanced...ie engineering a counter to negate all of these changes as best she can. IE With all of this increased baro from global warming, why don't we get a blizzard of '78 every season?! Velocity saturation. Why isn't all of the baro gone due to global warming!? Thermal gradient tightening. In the end, it means a change in distribution via less middling events and more big dogs.

Long after we are gone....I would argue that the additional warmth has actually increased baroclinicity thus far, as the warmth along with John's expanding Hadley Cell has pressed north. Catch 22 bc with the increased gradient comes more velocity saturation, so it's a give and take....but when you can neutralize said propensity for velocity saturation....BOOM. All we are left with is augmented baro and matches being lit. Higher stakes today.

Well, I mean, I'll take a CJ over January 2012.

I am actually trying to incorporate more of matching weather patterns into my analog methods, as I have learned a great deal from you the past few years. It's good to be eclectic in methodology because this is an imperfect science and every method has a weakness. This is why I would never advise placing TOO much weight on synoptic timescale matching in analogs, or anything else for that matter. There are going to be good analogs that are not entirely in sync with the current weather....just too much chaos to be that precise. That said, I would be positively stunned if this December were not colder in the east than December 2001. Doesn't mean that season does not have value as analog. I did not do forecasting back then, but I do remember that the 2001-2002 season was a real curve ball bc the consensus was very cold and snowy in the east.

Yea, if you tell me I only have one index to work with, and the rest are crap...I would take EPO....at least you know cold will be around. You may still have track issues, but otherwise you could have a perfect track with marine puke and zero baroclinicity to even detonate a bonafide event. It is exceedingly difficult to have a high ceiling in the absence of cold and baroclinicity...best bet is bookened events. But good luck in mid winter.

Absolutely....my point is that it just doesn't get the attention that wind and surge do because its not as sexy. Its insidious in that its actually more dangerous because wind and surge are easier to escape if you act responsibly in advance.

That chart is brutal to diagnose, but the pattern displayed doesn't look awful IMO....looks -EPO, -PDO with maybe a hint of blocking?

The current orange is harmless and always was. A benchmark track is great if you're looking for a blizzard, but bonafide tropical system...not so much. Not to mention it will remain a weak system.

The devastation from Ida in general was a no-brainer...I explicitly called for a top ten natural disaster on Thursday and it hit Sunday.

Yea, it was always obvious that we would get slammed by the remnants...that was not a surprise. I didn't care to delve into it any further because I could not have cared any less if I had tried.

Completely different because that was from freshwater flooding. Anyone with a shred of common sense (not directed at you) knows that Scott and I are referring to severe tropical cyclone impacts in terms of wind and storm surge. I get that fresh water flooding is often more costly, but meteorologically speaking, I'd rather be tied to a chair with my my eyes taped open in an upslope thread.

Does not interest me at all. Non-event.

@raindancewxreally likes 2017-2018, which would work just fine for me. lol Of course, he also likes 2001-2002, which makes me want to play in traffic.

I was pulling several inches per hour in March 2018....I have the notes somewhere, but I think it was like 5-6"/hr.

Yes, but can't rule out moderate. Strong was never on the table IMO.

Still convinced it peaks as moderate?

Got ya.....yea, I am only looking for more conspicuous threats...

From what? That system coming off over the CV islands? Good luck at that beginning latitude.

I remember having about a 13" snowpack heading into the blizzard.

One of the few relative disappointments that season.

Another inconspicuous Harv reference! Love those-

Feb 2015 beat that season as far as pack goes in Wilmington...I think Jan 2011 was about on par with Jan 1996.

So much for the cries of strong la nina...