40/70 Benchmark

Maybe.

Your posts are like nails on a chalk board. The warmer air making it further north does not matter, and these three posts illustrate why. This is in reference to next week, but the same logic applies here. Your thought process if far too linear.

Yea, don't hold your breath.

I think some of that is low level fronto from the CF, too.....up near this area.

So now that we have gotten that out of the way....let me add some affirmation to your statement. Yes, it will deliver somewhere, it just won't be here-

Why? What happened? Same thing that has all season......trough amplifying west with energy dump, then se ridge compresses against lower heights to the north to create that wonderful meat cleaver near New England....storm vaporizes on approach after LBSW.

24 hours later:

That system next week that folks are so hopeful over.......here is the long range EURO...yea, look at that lead time....OMG.....except its happen like this all year, so why would this one NOT get shredded? I buy it. This looks great, right? What could possibly go wrong?

I thought we would have more later-blooming Miller Bs this year, but they have either been so late that they ignited over the ocean, or been LBSW.

That looks no different then every other event this winter....LBSW....upside is several inches from a decaying system. Long wave trough this season is just situated a hair too far west for us.

Don't get me wrong.....you did an outstanding job identifying the pattern this month, but you can't control the breaks. This could have easily been Feb 1994. I am not optimistic moving forward, but we'll see.

Provocative...

I know this will cause Steve to have a coranary, but this month left a lot on the table for most of NE. I know he is going to point out that he will probably make his 30", but the fact of that matter is that the month will go down as an underachiever for the majority of the region. I never said anything, but about a week ago, I decided that this stretch would make or break the winter for at least me personally.....it really did have a shot to go Feb '94, as it appeared near the end of last week that we were entering quite a stretch. But Tuesday going rainer and this one shitting the bed killed that in my view. This week distinguished this season from the more prolific ones like 1994 because IMHO the opportunity to enter that realm has now passed. Aside from a narrow sliver s of the pike in SNE, this one is destined for mediocrity.

Pretty lame here overall...the entire winter was about 9 hours. It was lame, but not lame enough to render it memorable, if that makes sense. Not at all a ratter, but blah....about as expected last fall, though the sequencing has been off a bit.

The GFS is aggressive with this....toss.

What a melt.

Get the obs thread ready

Jerry, the Virga is undergoing bombogenesis and RI in the cloud tops. That should moisten the whole column explosively and may lead to thunder.

Imagine if had snowed about 20 minutes sooner...the dawn could have awakened to 3 feet!!!

Just at work.

Maybe some terrain enhancement...

It's easy to poo poo everything when the mood suites you right in the moment, but I may not cut back as much as many think....just pound home the duration aspect.

NAM did the same thing. Euro was hinting at that CF yesterday.

Well....you aren't being AWATT....lol

Funny...I wanted to wait to post until I saw the 12z EURO yesterday, but I forgot and posted. Then of course, it cuts waaaaaaay back an hour later lol I would have gone 4-8" like you, if I had waited. Head fakes on past two events.