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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    That makes sense. I recall reading lately that December has warmed the most during the past few decades. I will def sell +4F in this area for December. We will see what happens.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks Larry, but I was not alone by a long shot...many others, including @raindancewx never thought this event was that impressive at the surface. It is very well coupled with atmosphere, though. We will see...it still has a shot to sneak into moderate...it will be close, which was my thought all along (-.09 to -1.1 NDJ peak ONI).
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    We will see what actually verifies in December. Not really into grading my outlooks based upon CFS progs, but rather reality verification. I had normal to slightly below in Dec, so CFS comes in about +2. Recent long range guidance has been running warm around here of late.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not in any one spot within SNE.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    It can, but rare...like norluns.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's a valid concern for everyone...just be on the look out for the inverter trough like crap because that will be the kiss of death that something like that will probably take place. There will be several posters lurking around the thread from that point forward playing "pin the tail on the delusion", but don't be one of them. Get out, and if you're pleasantly suprised, great.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    9/10 times the inverted crap is an intermediary, provisional solution as guidance reconciles previously robust solutions with the reality that nothing is going to really happen.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yep. Bingo...as soon as Will started talking about "energy hanging back", I was out.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I highly doubt both work out, but one has a good shot.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Second week of December fits my timeline for the month...
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    What you need to realize about the 2007-2008 season is that there was a PV displacement on February 22, 2008. Here is what evolved that spring I anticipate a major disruption of the polar vortex about 1-4 weeks earlier this year, so you do the math.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    In outlook we trust.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Euro has interesting event in the extended. See if it warrants a blog when I subscribe later this week.....you know, for a reaction (just for you @Torch Tiger)
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    SWFE
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'd take that.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    This hasn't looked good since Thursday night. Back to long range...
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    RNA is favored during la nina, but there are plenty of instances of a month averaging PNA in the means...especially during the month of December. Just like RNA takes place during el nino. There should at last be some PNA spikes during December. Bad post.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Kind of....but the investment far outweighs the return, unlike trolling.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    You are exactly right. I spend hours, days and weeks perusing through data to elicit a reaction. Maybe I should start doing people's taxes for free, too? Imagine the reactions then
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like Saturday 12/18 it is.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    You all are giving him exactly what he wants....a reaction.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    3" maybe, and most won't see that.
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