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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its events out over the long haul....look at last January haha
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    @Isotherm Hope all is well, bud..see you browsing.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is why it nukes from my area into Maine. Not ready to bite on that yet...emerging consistency, though.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    GFS is closing mid levels as it passes...thats not a SWFE, but rather late-boom Miller B deal
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like the Hadley Cell ate it
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    You should trying fighting with Tip....its one of the most educational exercises imaginable. lol
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    The GFS must try to really sprout a coastal....totally gone wild that run. Gives me like 18"
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am trying to get a million things done today...saw that the Novie plot decently matched MJO 6/nina plot, and went out on a limb without checking and it blew up on me hahaha
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not arguing that it isn't biased in favor of S hem...I'll defer to your source on that. And its also very questionable whether it ever gets to phase 8, but there is plenty of evidence that it excites in phase 7.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not the whole time. I was in an out running errands and didn't have time to pull up the MJO plot, but should have.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Before I viewed that graphic, it certainly appeared to me that the MJO had an imprint on November....probably like everything else, the truth lies somewhere in the middle.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, it spent most of the month in the circle of death...but the monthly composite looked an awful lot like what you would expect if it were impacting. lol
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I created a lot of confusion by implying the MJO influenced November very much because it did not. However, I don't think its a coincidence that a lot of the long range guidance has the gradient look that is featured in MJO phase 7 during la nina composite, as the MJO reinvigorates in said phase.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was driving....sorry. You were right about November. I should have checked before making that assertion. However, I stand by the fact that the MJO should definitively have some signifiant influence moving forward in the month of December while in phase 7.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have never implied that you don't know what you're talking about, but I think sometimes you get extremely focused on one changing aspect of the atmosphere, namely the Hadley Cell expansion, and it biases your perception of everything else.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    What is lost on you is that the pattern in place has been consistent with an MJO wave in the marine continent during la nina. Launching vulgarities doesn't make you right.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I knew you'd say that. We'll agree to disagree that the MJO has zero contribution to the N Hem pattern anymore.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    MJO coherency IS your point whether you realize it or not because you are implying that it is not leaving an imprint on the N hemispheric pattern, when in fact it has been. It has been stuck in phase 6 for awhile now...and it is no coincidence that the the Nov 2021 composite: Looks an awful lot like the composite for phase 6 of the MJO during la nina ENSO:
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Two weeks from today at 3pm. See you guys in a couple of weeks to talk about the white xmas and onset of a great pattern.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I could live with that
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    My point is that the MJO has been coherent. I think this is like the HC phenomenon in that yes, it can be reduced, but not eradicated...how much is it muted is the question. Not much throughout November.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    SWFE are nice storms
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    It will end up as such.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yep. If it's doing that Monday, then maybe worry. 00z EPS will probably be fine
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