That's because the N stream dove into the backside of the trough, tilting it negative, otherwise it would have. This is why Will is saying we need more SW energy to phase in as insurance.
Its what happens where there are no imminent storms have haven't been for much of the season....people are left with nothing to do, but micro analyze the shit out of what one another says, which never ends well.
What is driving me nuts is the binary nature of this season to either hit NNE, or south of pike....continues the oscillation that has been prevalent for several years now.