40/70 Benchmark

Yea, that is absurd. SNE will never be shut out in our lifetime.

I have....I was about 50" above average that season....the six seasons since? Around 75" below in the aggregate.

I don't know.....Forky's smiley face composite was pretty compelling evidence otherwise....

That pattern does not suprise me in the least, I just didn't expect it in December.

Agree.

As it turns out, Pats will be playing that night...

As shitty as it looks right now, I am very confident that this winter will not suck for most of the region.

The most difficult aspect about a basin wide event, which this la nina is, though biased east of center, is distinguishing which elements of the modoki composite and east type composite that the season will assume.

Just a quick note for some of you guys bummed over the mild December. Many have noted that this la nina has continued to shifted eastward, at least as much, if not maybe a bit more so than I had expected. Consider this excerpt from my write up last month regarding how the month of December can evolve differently based upon ENSO type. There exist some notable differences between these two disparate types of la nina events. Here are a couple of schematics outlining these differences: Differences between east-based La Nina's & central-based La Nina's Figure A is east-based. Figure B is central-based DJF 500mb for East-based years: DJF Temps Ironically in east-based years JFM is colder than Dec. Dec is typically the warmest month in the east-based years, which runs counter to typical cold ENSO climo. JFM 500mb east-based years JFM Temps Compare all of that to central-based La Nina years: DJF 500mb DJF Temps December is the coldest month for central-based Nina's. One thing worth noting is not all East-based Nina's are frigid, as there is variability due to the relatively weak ocean-atmosphere coupling. This is because many east-based events, as is the case with modoki el nino events, are weaker. You can have warmth, especially if the event is weaker, and one such case is 2005-2006.

That's optimistic? One of those dudes who only sees the upper end of the range lol

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/12/light-snowfall-likely-wednesday-final.html

I still think that there will be a pretty good thaw later in January, but the month shouldn't be a total torch at this point.

Not surprising in the least that this season is featuring some periods like that. Good post, @forkyfork.

Funny, I mentioned Feb 2018 as a potential analog for a January stretch....I just seem to have my timing mixed up in the early going this season.

Maybe one last mowing on Saturday...just for you, @CoastalWx

Agree

I still feel very good about later this month in through the new year...hang tight.

People forget how boring 12/2008 was in terms of snowfall until holiday week....

We get a snowy holiday week, people will love it.

I did not see that coming. First to admit....well, I could see the trend, but thought it would come back.

Yea, this close in...give the me the invert lol

For me, its more about not wanting the invt scenario....ie, give me a storm.

I already mentioned...I buy it at this range....just tough to pin hopes to it as you would a storm because scope is so limited and its relatively unpredictable.

Also better zone to the north.

I honestly often don't.