40/70 Benchmark

Sorry, I just feel like I spend all of this time articulating my thoughts on the season in one package, and then people read waaay too much into what I post in casual dialogue on a chat forum. Mostly Raindance, but I guess I projected that frustration onto you a bit. I'm probably most nervous about my February thoughts....any official SSW would be a deviation from the expected, so hopefully it occurs early in January.

I don't feel nervous about this in the slightest...TBH, I feel more confident than I did a month ago because I knew that I was betting on this season leaving something on the table....and now it has. City Predicted Snowfall Actual Forecast Error Boston, MA 40-50" ? ? NewYork, NY(Central Park) 25-35" ? ? Philadelphia, PA 15-25" ? ? Baltimore, MD 10-20" ? ? Washington, DC 5-15" ? ? Albany, NY 75-85" ? ? Hartford, CT 50-60" ? ? Providence, RI 30-40" ? ? Worcester, MA 75-85" ? ? Tolland, CT 55-65" ? ? Methuen, MA 60-70" ? ? Hyannis, MA 20-30" ? ? Burlington, VT 90-100" ? ? Portland, ME 85-95" ? ? Concord, NH 80-90" ? ?

That is not below normal in most of the area, first of all. Secondly, I feel like I have been detailed enough with respect to my thoughts regarding this season.

15.8 for the low

GFS has schooled it where it counts this season....PAC.

Yea, something like that...

I have all or my numbers down, so quote those.

I think we could still see 2010-2011 totals minus 20-30" or so...

That guy is brutal.

This is why it's never wise to go with 2010-2011 totals in a la nina. The DM pattern may very well end up looking similar, but alot went right that year.

I never, ever feared suppression this month...no brainer IMO.

1955-1956 is one of my favorite analogs.

Linning up the quotes....

Yea, frankly ...I am just sitting out right now....given how high the frustration meter is, its going to fall on deaf ears, for the most part. There is a contingent that are just in full-tilt "obnoxiously defiant reverse psych mode" and are going to put up resistance to the mere notion that it will ever snow again. I just assume wait that out until they flip into extreme winter mode again once something becomes more imminent.

That was totally the Buffalo version of the blizzard of '78.

Yes, but a SSW can cause causation variation from normal la nina late season climo...hence "all bets off".

I think the thaw sped up due to the body blow that the block took from that big low last week...probably would have lasted longer had that not been forced to amplify so far west and barrel into it.

Thaw looks to end up being about a week earlier than I had thought back in early November, as it's the first week of of January instead of the second. Considering that most of us struck out on the first big pattern, I would rather the timeline speed up so as to salvage more peak climo. I had expected a mild February, but keep in mind that I did NOT anticipate a SSW....so if that works out, then all bets are off for Feb.

You "muse to self alot "....I maybe taking new clients soon...

I incorporate MEI into intensity ranking...

Peak intensity of the event, but I tend to designate structure more by winter period..

I think I had around normal....

2017-2018 was fairly backloaded.

Complete agreement. Been saying all fall...any pig of AK this season is transient and big time Pacifc improvements in January with a return if blocking. I titled my outlook "Mid Winter Mayhem" for a reason.

+1/2" 2" on the season...