40/70 Benchmark

Mostly the latter this season.

I'd love a 50/50 compromise between EURO and NAM.

I haven't really looked yet, but I would focus more on ensembles for several more days.

Here were my thoughts with respect to March from last November: March 2022 Outlook March Analogs: 1956 (x2), 1984, 1996, 2006 (x2), 2001 (x3), 2018 (x2), 1975, 2011 The first half of March should be blocky with an improving Pacific. The month should feature both Miller A & B cyclogenesis, as there are signs that the subtropical jet may enter the scene in addition to the active northern stream. This could be a very volatile set up with immense storm potential should the two streams phase. There is a relatively strong chance of a KU magnitude event between March 1st and 15th. The failure risk is that the SSW does not materialize, which could alter the forecast dramatically. Monthly departures anywhere from 1-3 degrees below average with the coldest across the interior and above average snowfall from the mid atlantic into New England. This should be a very active east coast pattern rivaling that of March 2018 and 2001, though with perhaps more southern stream involvement. The pattern may rapidly break down later in the month with an early spring to reward beleaguered residents of the northeast if the vortex does indeed weaken a bit earlier than the Euro guidance suggests, as forecast by Eastern Mass Weather. This March forecast, again, is contingent upon the development of high latitude blocking, and the risk is for a warmer outcome should that not occur. or be delayed, as the European guidance hints at. Obviously the glaring error is with respect to the polar domain, as it appears as though the uptick in solar activity was enough to derail that. However, clearly the poleward Pacific ridging still holds the potential to deliver during that originally highlighted March 1-15 window.

I get that....but that is more a factor for ORH....I only have two insanely above average seasons, 04-05 is offset by 11-12. I will crunch the numbers when I can. Like I said, I am sure I am a bit above average due to 2014-2015, but its nothing outlandish.

Yea, from me and up through MHT, CON are pretty much in the same pork zone this year.

This is why I make fun of Scooter with all of the regression crap.....I'm sure 04-05 and 14-15 skew the actual 22 year mean upwards, but its not as extreme as he thinks just off of the coast.

Yes. 01-02, 03-04, 05-06, 06-07, 09-10, 11-12, 15-16, 16-17 (very close to normal), 18-19, 19-20, 20-21, 21-22 (in progress)

I've had 12.....wasn't bad until these past 4 consecutive, assuming I don't reach normal this year.

What was you max depth with that? Did you actually measure a 34" depth?

Must have been a few more members that came in like the OP.

I honestly don't think I will get porked in this one, but I couldn't pass up the opportunity after that run.

LOL I would honestly rather that, than a foot storm that lasts the entire season....but just me.

Yea, must suck coming off of the 3 footer last year. Tough pill to swallow for sure.

Usually just Bob, whose been absent.

I'd kill to get barely above climo.

You know someone is in distress when Will breaks out poker analogies.

You did great last year.

No.

Well, as an LICSW, the difference is that those are largely based upon irrational fears....given the snowfall deficits at hand, this is based upon actual seasonal observations. But again, healf-joking....I look good for at least 8" or so.

Well, how was your mental health after Dec 92? Huddled in the bathroom alone in tears the middle school dance?

Anyway, seems like a good 6-8" is a virtual lock, so that is a KU by this season's standards.

Rinse, and repeat...Will just told me that before the last porking lol

Yea, the blizzard looked pissah, too....plenty of other events have looked out-F*cking standing.....yet here I sit, at 28" and change.