40/70 Benchmark

I wonder why these images self-destructed? I hate that....

I'm going to sound like a broken record this fall, but this isn't going to be a climo-rip-and-read la nina winter. I am pretty confident of that. The atmosphere is getting out ahead of the ocean.

Not to that degree.....9 consecutive days of RECORD highs? They wouldn't be records

He was on the some obscure radio station this AM on my way into work...I was so giddy... I was like "STEIN"!!!!!. I wanted to call in for an autograph. The legend grows like his wisdom and he has no idea...

You gotta wonder if we glean anything from this epic western heat ridge with respect to winter. I am of the opinion that its not meaningless.

I know, but if you read the bio, it says Britain. He probably relocated for work, which is something most Mets need to do.

@ Giacomo Masato on Twitter.. he's a met from Britain. It's his in house model.

Hmmm...

What it is trying to convey is the presence of a strong PAC jet because you have lower heights up by AK, owed to a very falt Aleutian ridge that is probably a function of a very intense la nina. Not happening.

UK is too strong with la nina....tossed.

The French guidance is basically 2000-2001 with respect to ENSO, which is maybe why it does that? Very weak modiki la nina.

Then, there is the UK....

I'm sure you are, but the question is, will mother nature be? lol

I don't think December will be as cold as the French guidance would imply, but I like the JMA idea of a some neg NAO with marginal cold. Coast could have issues early on....could be like a December 1996 transitioning to a January 2003 look before the fun period gets more widespread...with ultimately a relaxation later.

This is what I mean about the 2010-2011 element....the guidance tries to pass the baton from a good Atlantic early on to a better Pacific in January.

My theory all along has been for a blocky first half, or at least first third, and I see this emerging as a theme among guidance. The French suite is particularly weenie, but they all have at least some NAO east, to a degree, early on.

French Kiss:

Well, I would just say it was a weak la nino and leave it at that because being N stream reliant is always a risk in weak el nino seasons. That is why you guys want them a bit more robust, like 1957, 1986, 2002 and 2009. Maybe the weaker STJ was exacerbated coming off of a triple deep la nina because the weak nino of 1977-1978 had a bit more of a STJ, but the main thing is you want a more moderate el nino. I think you will get that next year.

It could be similar just in the sense that 1976-1977 had a very diffuse STJ and was all N stream...that is why it sucked down there. That is a risk this year......that said, I def. would not use it as an analog, per se.

Early guess at December:

Bouchard was awful IMO.

That December pattern really reminds me of the Cantore "Thundersnow" month of December 1996, which makes sense to me....I don't think it will be a frigid month, but do buy some NAO blocking with an active look. I think the PNA will be more positive, which is a big difference from December 1996....it will just take a while to build up the cold reservoir in Canada. I think the cold comes after the holidays.

This one post beautifully encapsulates everything that I have been trying to convey to @snowman19. Seasonal forecasts are almost like fantasy drafts in the sense that people don't always appreciate that you need to evaluate analog seasons in terms of percentages....ie if you are looking for 1995-1996/2009-2010 upside, then this season is likely to disappoint. But that doesn't mean it isn't going to deliver pretty high value. In fantasy sports, there are some players that are drafted highly because of the high degree of confidence that they will have a decent season, rather than an elite ceiling. This season to me feels like it has a safe floor and a relatively low ceiling for a lot of the east coast, so while it may not have the allure of the high ceiling to lure weenies into drafting it in the first round, I think its a safe bet to return decent winter value. We have a hemisphere in a great state of flux as it begins to rapidly shift gears towards a warm ENSO phase, and quite a favorable one for winter enthusiasts, at that......JMHO.