40/70 Benchmark

Big blocking patterns set us up for this....we get lots of hype leading them, but the payoff is usually delayed. Add in that it's the start of the season and it's a perfect storm of angst.. especially considering we got screwed by the largest RNA on record last December.

Right.

It's tough to ever look great for the coast in early Dec, though...climo is what it is.

Initially, yes. Its serviceable for the coast...just more of an uphill battle.

The best pattern for SNE is not neg NAO +PNA IMHO ...that is ideal for mid atl and se. What we should hope for is neg NAO, neg EPO/modest RNA split flow...have a conga line of PAC SWs head east and run into: 1) The block sending the wave underneath us. 2) Arctic air spilling in from the M stream via the AK ridge.

God, you are such a puke. They implied that the GEFS and GEPS may be handling the Pacific better in that the neutralization of the RNA will be delayed (which I agree with)....has nothing to do with his point, which was the NAO block sending the chain of PAC shortwaves south and under said block. Classic neg NAO/RNA snow pattern.

YES.

Bullshit. Some of our best patterns take place with an RNA/neg NAO....the RNA just can't be extreme.

Yea, I got burned hard core in 2020...one of two huge busted seasonal forecasts. I don't foresee an official SSW this year...just MHO.

Usually the big events that I do get in the first half of December are from SWFE, etc...not coastals....in a way, it's better for the coast to hold off on the big coastal pattern.

I agree w Kev, it would be great to snow from Tday through St Paddy day, but it just doesn't work like that.

At this range, I am more confident I'm this pattern materializing than I was March 2018....that was many strat...this is strat and tropics...probably more tropics. Patterns dependent on mainly strat are riskier bc funky shit can happen with PV splits, etc.

I would get it if we were seeing a black hole over AK with a death star PV, but 'cmon....so we wait until climo gets better and are closer to the holidays...boo hoo lol. This isn't going to go away or fail...its rooted in the stratosphere and tropics. It's not just clown range model antics. Could we still just end up with shit luck and not much snow? Sure, but odds are against it.

Funky Murphy's, Worcester.

Thing is I can't count on one hand the number of major snow storms I have had prior to 12/10.....people just totally forget that..why folks in SNE want a great pattern on 12/5 is beyond me....holding off isn't the worst outcome.

I guess in some alternative universe 12/6 is after 12/10....the weather weenie XFiles

.23" RF today...Hi of 56

I will take -NAO/RNA regime over -NAO/+PNA....especially in December.

Take a look at January 1969....brutal luck, then shit hit the fan in February.....1995 was the exception in that the pattern paid off immediately. That usually isn't the case....much like everything else in nature, there is a lag...just like with respect to the seasons relative to the sun.

I'm the first one to melt and bitch when I feel like things have gone wrong, but we just aren't there yet.

Yea, the first half of the pattern always favored the interior in my mind, too.....so figure the window open between 12/10 and 12/14 for interior...the coast joins the frey after mid potentialwise mid month and we also can't forget that the first couple of cracks at it often don't pan out in these patterns....so the coast could very easily be waiting until around or just before xmas without anything having gone wrong pattern wise. This is why I stressed that the coast may nor have a white xmas and kost of the fun comes in January when I wrote everything up in November. It looked like maybe things were speeding up, but that has ceased.

Except in a negative PNA/NAO pattern...its cold east and west in the north.

Is still too rushed? Maybe...its always been a matter of when, not if. I originally expected the fireworks in January, anyway

It's not just about model forecasting skill, though. This big block is not going away....do I trust long range guidance? No. But I do trust my ability assess the tropical landscape, and the tropics and to a lesser extent the stratosphere is not going to allow this to go to crap. Not happening. Now, if someone is going to yell bust because we don't end up with January 2011 or March 2018, then that is on them.