40/70 Benchmark

Yes, been saying I'll decide once and for all whether to really follow it or not this weekend.

1) It must remain weak enough to avoid recurving, while still maintaining its overall integrity, a task which is made a bit taller by the fact that a weaker, more westward tracking system is more likely to interact with Hispaniola. 2) The way I see this is that there is a pretty narrow path to major US impacts considering that a it must thread the need in limiting interaction with the Greater Antilles, while also avoiding re-curvature. I feel like the ceiling for US impact is a TS, with perhaps a slight risk of a minimal cane....which fits my definition of ignorable. I know others may disagree.

Still seems like a largely ignorable tropical entity IMO.

The irony is that he claimed that we spend so much time on a weather forum because we are socially inept and fear direct social contact, when the reality is that we spend so much time here because we have all met in person and developed friendships over the years as a result of our shared passion for the weather. Mutual interests are among the most powerful vehicles for social cohesion, which is a concept that is apparently every bit as foreign to him as a warm DM Albuquerque outlook.

That was the first "biggie" that I remember vividly.

That is one of the most underrated winters..one of my favorites. 93-94 gets all of the accolades because it was better for the densely populated CJ zone, but 92-93 had two immense signature events. And its not an IMBY thing because I wasn't anywhere close to a jack in either one.

I think it will go N of Hispaniola.

The el nino thing was a wild first guess from back in March, dude...not a forecast. Look at the title of the thread....."Winter Conjecture". That is all that opening sentiment was. I check out from weather every spring, so it was literally a wild guess before detaching from weather. I am about as transparent as can be with respect to my results...anyone here would tell you that. Its unfortunate that someone as talented as you seems to have such egregious internal demons/strife ....really no need to call me an idiot and attack me like that. I hope whatever perceived shortcomings you have in life are ultimately sorted out, so you can stop using your passion for weather to overcompensate for all of your insecurities and cease to project that venom onto others. Good luck with that-

Man, it's a bloodbath when he gets going on one of his climate change tangents, though....goes into vivid detail like only he can about how there won't be any more hurricanes, it won't snow south of Mooseanus, ME, and everyone's crotch will melt off. Makes we wanna tie a firm knot some place really high and just "hang out"...

My mentality is to take things a bit further each successive season; building off of the conceptual framework and supporting data (composites) from prior works. I've done that over the past several years if you scrolle through the outlooks.

It goes on the show how the placement of the SST anomalies within the ENSO region and the resultant forcing schemes at least partially explains the vastly different outcomes in terms of sensible weather.

No recollection of that.

Man, you have a way of authoring posts that just drain the soul of a weather weenie, at least for those courageous enough to endure the entire length of them.

I was just thinking that RE the flip....I remember you commenting on the EURO death ridge. The way things are going, I'll get the heat ridge, but the timing will be such that the tropics still whiff lol

Yea, will probably end up OTS.

Well, we have the Carol's, Donna's, Gloria's and Bob's sprinkled in that at a greater rate of return, which are destructive enough in their own right. We are overdue for one of those.

Oh, I misread his question.

Yea, I said the same thing...but who knows regarding track, at that range.

And as far as weenies go....

CMC ends up in the GOM, and ICON near the Bahamas...NAVGEM looks like it may recurve east of Bahamas..

That actually could be worse.....it crosses near the tip of LI, as is, so much of LI would be spared the catastrophic surge. Send that 50-70mi westward if you would like to wipe them.

No. @ Pit

One day it won't-

One thing worth noting is not all East-based Nina's are frigid, as there is variability due to the relatively weak ocean-atmosphere coupling. This is because many east-based events, as is the case with modoki el nino events, are weaker. You can have warmth, especially if the event is weaker, and one such case is 2005-2006. Likewise, there were some weak modoki events that were fairly cold across the eastern US, such as 2000-20001. This is further proof that there does indeed exist a structural mechanism beyond strength that dictates the overall character of la nina events and one of the focal points of this writing is to elucidate that point. There are some "hybrid" events that share both east-based and modoki traits. You can have a Nina that is a mix of east-based versus central-based, or "basin-wide", such as both this season and last.

This is what I try to address by binning the ENSO events by structure...you can't explain everything because there are so many extemporaneous factors, but it does illuminate the issue somewhat. Given that a strong la nina is not anticipated this season, here is our running composite of successive la nina events, which remains largely unchanged. However, the composite is heavily skewed by the very anomalously mild 2011-2012, as composite is much cooler if this season is subtracted. An examination of cool ENSO events by intensity confirms that the outlier of 2011-2012 heavily skews the dataset of weak to moderate successive la nina events warm. Cool Neutral: Weak La Nina: Moderate La Nina: Strong La Nina: Clearly there are significant differences with respect to the pattern across the northern hemisphere that are at least partially governed by the intensity of the cold ENSO event. Thus it is important to focus not necessarily on whether or not the la nina event is successive, or as we will come to learn not even solely on the intensity itself, but rather precisely what structural nuances are attributable to these differences in order to properly diagnose and forecast a la nina season. Indeed, the primary difference as it pertains to North America is with respect to the Aleutian Low and its interaction with the polar fields. The stark contrast between the 2011-2012 season, which peaked with a marginally moderate ONI at -1.1, and the robust la nina of 2010-2011 with a peak of -1.6 ONI demonstrates this disparity quite well. What is also clear is that intensity, while undoubtedly a contributing factor, is not the only determinant, otherwise the strong la nina season of 2010-2011 would have been much milder for the eastern US than the rather modest la nina event of the 2011-2012 season. And for those wondering, yes, the 2010-2011 la nina was the first event, and the 2011-2012 episode was the second consecutive. However, the remaining "mild second year la nina in the east" crowd should also ponder why the strong, second year la nina event of 1955-1956, which peaked with an ONI -1.7, evolved in much the same manner as the 2010-2011 event. Thus far it has been illustrated that while stronger la nina events tend to be milder for the eastern US due to a flat Aleutian ridge and dearth of high latitude blocking, there are some stronger events such as 1955-1956 and 2010-2011 that seem to have a more poleward Aleutian ridge, similar to the weaker la nina composite. Likewise, there are also more modest la nina events, such as 2011-2012, that behave similarly to the stronger ONI composite in that the Aleutian ridge is very flat and the eastern US is very mild. This tends to correlate to a very active Pacific jet that inundates most of N America, save for Alaska, with mild Pacific air masses.