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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I'll take a look when I have more down time, but I know the UK is doing that again. UK, whether seasonal or mid range, seems to have this tendency to gravitate towards the extreme ends of the guidance spectrum, which is why we call it "crazy uncle"...
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is a great point, and why I feel as though some circles place too much emphasis on SST patterns. The reality is that its usually a combination. I do think this does evince some sort of shift taking place, which was not the case last season. MEI is finally beginning to rise precipitously, which isn't a shock because it basically had to. MEI.v2: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory I would expect that general trend to continue.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, probably somewhere in between.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    That's just confirming that this season had a high starting point, which we already know...its not necessarily predictive, as he also said. This is why the statistical guidance is also a bit more aggressive than the dynamical. But 1.5 weekly reading would get the ONI to about solid moderate. I think that is the ceiling.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    N Foster, RI seems to be about identical with Wilmington, MA snowfall, climo wise...just an anecdotal observation....
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    No one is rooting for a 2000-2001 redux more than I am lol. Its a fair analog....main issues are QBO and la nina maybe a touch stronger, buts its not bad.....its actually very good match to location of the anomalies within ENSO, like 2010 was last season. The French seasonal guidance for winter that I posted, which was a pants tent, was a spitting image of 2000-2001 with respect to la nina. 1975 is the best analog in terms of QBO, but la nina def. won't be that strong...still has some value, though.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I remember that one....I was recovering from my drunken escapades the night before...drove home to Wilmington from the hotel near KBOS, crashed again and woke up to an inch or two of slush transitioning to rain...kicked off a great winter.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not a bad thing to have a consolidated PV to start....we want that source region very chilled. The key is to eventually perturb it.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Would it happen to do with the ex#@##ion of the @adl#y C#@l?
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, it sucks here, too.....it goes wild with la nina....that's why that monster Aleutian ridge is so flat.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Picked up .02" here.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    ..Of course, December is pending, and given that December 2006 was one of the worst in history, I think that will ultimately tip the scales.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the first calendar year that could even potentially challenge 2022 for how boring it has been is 2006. Although, I would have to give the edge to 2022 because the former had the Feb snowstorm, and the epic May floods. This year had the blizzard that was only severe across the se third of the region, and a drought. Both had lame tropical seasons... I give the excitement edge to 2006.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    99-00 is a decent analog, only issue is I think la nina will be weaker.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Didn't seem as though you were privy.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, two years ago was fresh on the heels of covid....so it probably wasn't that bad.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Good idea.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I guess it was fine to do once, just to say I have....but lots of inconvenience, which I don't tolerate as well as I did when I was younger. Thankfully, that was back in my drinking days.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Go and leave early...traffic was brutal....it just wasn't worth it to me.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    You guys did okay in 2013-2014 and 1999-2000, correct?
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the high degree of variance with respect to snowfall makes it fun. Obviously a lot of luck involved, but it's not like there isn't with respect to fantasy sports, as well, and that doesn't stop people.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's a weather forum.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Ding, ding, ding.....
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I went to Salem once on Halloween like 15 or 20 years ago...never again.
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