40/70 Benchmark

Low ACE/cold ENSO, since 1950....not bad:

I wanted to pull the trigger on Westford, but can't do it for the very reason Tip just brought up. Will probably end up in N Tewks or East Dracut....

Well, now we know what NOT to say...

74.5/69.3 IMBY

Ha.....this is why I will only move so far west, working in Chelsea....its an unmitigated disaster. Route 2? That probably blows, too.... Just shooting south down I 93S is somewhat manageable.

Memes are so much fun.

That is a pretty prevalent theme. I agree RE your stance on seasonal guidance; while the overall track record warrants a healthy dose of skepticism, they are tools from which you can elicit salient clues.

Yes, same thing with SAI...people initially over react and treat it as the holy grail, and then once we realize that it doesn't operate in a vacuum like everything else, we summarily disregard it. The over reliance on technology has rendered us so impulsive that we are essentially human versions of the UKMET....incapable of objective assessment that is unfettered by emotion so that we sway from one extreme to the other when casting judgement.

Oh, they are hit or miss in terms of parlaying into a winter onslaught for a given area, agreed...the location and precisely how they manifest is crucial and the devil is in the details, but the question was just related to occurrence. And as illustrated by the Feb '89 example, many of them don't do very much for winter enthusiasts. I think there was another one in early 2020 that was pretty useless, too....they sometimes just act to stagnate and subsequently enhance whatever MJO state you are in at the time of occurrence, and if it sucks, then you're done. This happened in that miserable 2020 season.

Look at Feb '89...roaring strong modiki la nina and sky high solar, yet we saw a PV split. You just never know...all we can do is play the odds.

Very appropriate for this tropical season.

I think it was fairly low, given 2009-2010 was a min, but I think Jan 2013 was pretty high solar.....QBO was flipping westerly. Decent analog, too....March 2000 had one, as well.

That is the one I saved....sweet.

We give it until the weekend.

The orange one is a contendah...I will wait for the weekend to take a vested interest.

In his defense, there was so much other weather worth tracking in 2022, right? lol

One thing I will add is that some forecasters get too carried away with the QBO....its just one factor, and a relatively poorly understood one at that. So, while I def. consider the QBO, I don't think its necessarily a deal breaker.

You've done much better than my area the past several years...you even beat him in '20-'21.

So thankful the downpours held off until after my commute.

I generally agree, but it can be tough to predict SSW....I have a list of them on my laptop. I will take a look at the list when I get a chance and try to see how many occurred with a W QBO....I know there were some. I think early 2009 was one, off the top of my head... Its ironic that there is a circle of UK forecasters promulgating that idea, since the UK seasonal guidance is the most hostile of all for east coast winter prospects

Between the atmosphere transitioning out of cold ENSO, and the eruption, I think some these preconceived notions about the ensuing winter will be really challenged.

What are the main impacts for us from greater concentrations of sea ice? Potentially better source region?

The decadal oscillations aren't very difficult to predict...however, the devil is in the details concerning the behavior of their more stochastic cousins.

PDO will be negative this winter...bigger question is PNA.