40/70 Benchmark

John, I was just trolling you towards the end...I get it, in all seriousness. NP.

I think I see why the GFS takes off more than anything else....it looks like it manages to keep the drier air to the west further removed from the core of Fiona, after it gets IVOF the Bahamas early next week.

I don't give a shit how others feel, I'll just go on to write 8 paragraphs about how they feel that no one will read.

No...wrong reason. Again, its not out of disappointment, but its knowing I should blog about it when I don't want to. If presuming to tell others how they feel is not the epitome of condescending "psycho-babble", then I'm not sure what is. Irony.

That's why I never insert into safe weather in the first place.....celibacy FTW.

Right for the wrong reason...in all honestly, my "psycho-babble" motivation for doing this has nothing to do with disappointment because I never had hopes for this, honestly; but instead its a conflict between my apathy as it pertains to this particular system as a hobbyist, with my recognition that its probably just about blog-worthy and I don't care to exert the effort as a result of said apathy. But I did ultimately characterize his stance as "fair", so while perhaps my initial posture bordered on condescending, it ended in validation. On other note, I am willing to bet that those "gaslight" posts are consumed in their entirety at a far higher rate than your posts. JK-kinda...

Yea, that's fine...it just wasn't initially apparent to me that the model we were referring to was the CMC Only reason I was confused.

Perfectly fair and agreed. I love the tropics, but TS level impact doesn't do much for me. 25% of some sort of direct impact on the US, regardless of intensity, seems about right.

I didn't even realize that CEM2 was the GEM....I guess that is why he thought that, if it is....

I'll begin to practice staying safe. Between the waves on ACK and the .20" on rain in a 1/2 hour next week, there will be plenty to talk about.

How does his post imply that the CMC settles it? The CMC has been the furthest west all along... not sure I see your point.

Have you ever noticed that the mere mentioned of SNE severe earns you a bukake of weenies?

Who would have though that heat would wane as we near the Equinox....weather never ceases to amaze me.

The CEM2, which is on a bee line towards the US, probably the weakest of all of the guidance.

What these folks like the tweeter above fail to tell you is that, while yes....a US LF, while unlikely, remains very possible.....it would more than likely be as a TS or POSSIBLY a very minimal hurricane if it were to track that far west. It would be one of these "rain-maker" deals.

I reserve the right to change my mind through tomorrow, as I have always maintained that this weekend is when I definitively decide whether or not to board this bus. But one thing is certain, the window for a major US impact is exceedingly slim. It needs to thread a narrow path within an intensity-track continuum that will afford it ample opportunity to intensify significantly, late in the game enough to not cause it to veer seaward.

I've always felt like a goal post track was the most likely scenario....one of those deals where nothing happens, but Steve and Pickles will whack it to waves. Pickles will probably chase the waves. Waves=cirrus in my mind.

"Far"? I wouldn't say that....what a reach lol

Maybe its me, but I just don't see this as being worthy of anyone's time.....I think it is, and has been pretty clear that the odds of a major US impact are pretty low. The main threat was when it looked like it may cause flooding in PR, but now even that is mitigated with the southern track. Its a boring year...I get it. But I guess more and more with age I would rather not allocate my time toward tracking a lost cause-

41.2

I had a hernia repair in May...started to feel it last December...it was a very small one on the left side of my groin. It didn't show up in any imagery...surgeon was finally able to feel it. I took two weeks off from lifting weights...not bad.

45.5

Well, like I said to Paul...I have no issue with comparing an INDIVIDUAL season to the appropriate climo period...for instance, 1978 to the 1951-1980 period, etc....or 2018 to 1981-2010. However, for a composite of seasons from a myriad of different decades, I prefer the expansive 1951-2010 set. No, I don't expect normal temps for the south as a baseline la nina composite, however, perhaps a certain individual season will turn out that way....which is why we look at a plethora of other variables.

UGH wave talk.....you know a storm blows when you start hearing that...its like when the focus settles on upslope or flooding with respect to a winter storm.