40/70 Benchmark

I have a couple...1975-1976 was a slightly toned down 2007-2008...sharp gradient. 1973-1974 was like that, too. Unfavorable per teleconnections, but Canada was so cold that the north did well.

Doesn't matter...I begin matching them in June. They had been matching well, but november may screw it up.

Yea, sucks....that's giving me pause with respect to my sensible weather analogs....they were doing great until now.

I think this year's piece is pretty good...I've really been able to dig beyond the ENSO structural variations, while achieving forecast symmetry via consensus from a variety of different angles. I was able to dig into the polar domain a bit more this season, which should hopefully improve what has been a dreadful area for me. I have managed to work around that with respect to la nina, but misdiagnosing the polar domain absolutely killed me in the el nino seasons of 2018-2019 and 2019-2020.

Def warmer then...thanks.

No, he and DT are aggressive. LC has the best snows NW of us, but still above average here.

I would like to see the 50mb charts from Novie 2000.

The letting LC pass by part....he is on board for a good season. Are you saying I jumped on board later? I'm not offended or anything...just honestly confused. Anyway, its a fluid process until I send everything...my ENSO stuff has been consistent since mid summer, but the issue was the new sensible weather stuff I am trying wasn't aligning. I used to just to ENSO.

What is the difference between Canadian warming VS SSW? I take it the former is more minor?

November 2000 had a Canadian warming event, which led to a displacement in December and split in Feb.

I'm surprised I haven't hard more about that PV split...probably bc its so early.

That's right...I remembered that after I posted. Still shaking cob webs.

Isn't 10mb better?

Thanks, man.

@CoastalWx@ORH_wxman Could you guys help me out and throw me some strat temp/PV guidance for the next month? I don't have my packages yet and Judah is out of commission this week. Thanks.

Yea, the disaster scenario a la 2001, 2011 can be eliminated. I was never really concerned about it, but its nice to have confirmation.

I can take or leave an inch or two of slush in latter Novie...just get me up off of the mat when climo winter begins.

Yow know if it was 25 at noon today, you would be OCDing about the timing being bad and skinny dipping on xmas Be honest.....tell the truth...

You don't go from a pig right into the freezer...the source region has to recover. Maybe the cold is initially over modeled, which would be expected...but unless the pattern itself keeps getting pushed back, then that is of no concern long term.

I don't know where this obnoxious mindset that "everyone is a moron because its warm, even though everyone expected it", comes from. It has to be rooted in some sort of retaliatory defense mechanism. Revisit in a month.

Thanks, man. It became clear to me during my IOD research back in August. Using the Indian Ocean as a Predictor of ENSO | Eastern Mass Weather Its probably not a big deal, but it maybe related to why this event became a bit more east-based, as well. The fact that it was so stagnant really helped to facilitate the development of the negative subsurface anomalies in the western end of ENSO. This was bordering on Modoki until August...I began get a bit more optimistic for winter later in the summer and into the fall due to this...pending results of my sensible analog recalibration.

Yea, it had a pretty high-end deal for my area, but I meant more regionally.

Yea, I was thinking of that one...pretty consistent cold, though it lacked the real big dog signature event.

Want that at around 180

I think this is one of those seasons in which we will have a good source region in our back pockets if all else fails.