40/70 Benchmark

I guess this first post is what he is referring to. First of all, this is nothing more than conjecture...as the title suggests. Its just open dialogue and not at all a forecast. This is when a I began to actually look at data and develop an informed opinion, which is my first blog post on the season. Everything before this point was just me talking out of my rear while being immersed in fantasy baseball. Again, during the winter I only concentrate on snow threats and then I take the spring off and look at nothing. Why on earth he takes open chatter amongst friends as a forecast is beyond me. This is why I have a blog, in order to distinguish between organized and informed meteorological insight from simple chatter. But he has already admitted that he doesn't look at the blog, so he wouldn't know that.

Perfect example of a write up ripping myself for an awful forecast.....no clue where this crap comes from. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/05/winter-2019-2020-modified-modoki.html You want to say my stuff is garbage, that is okay with me...this is just a hobby and I do the best that I can. But don't tell me that I am dishonest about the results.

Here is the link to all of my blog posts....by all means, find me an entry advocating for el nino. https://www.blogger.com/blog/posts/2820149554058213224 Again, I wagered a complete guess in mid March based upon nothing at all except for the fact that we were coming off of two consecutive la nina events. I hadn't researched anything...which is why I said el nino at that time. Its not my fault you eat Thanksgiving dinner by yourself coming up with esoteric correlations to support snow in New Mexico that no one else on god's green earth gives a flying fart about.

Where does this say el nino, you miserable, socially inept troll? https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/06/la-nina-advisory-remains-in-place.html JUN 23 La Nina Advisory Remains in Place Through June La Nina Advisory Remains in Place Through June Third Consecutive La Nina for Boreal Winter 2022-2023 Far From Certain; El Nino Very Unlikely On the heels of two consecutive moderate la nina events, the June 2022 update from the International Research Institute continues the seemingly interminable cold ENSO event into spring 2023. As illustrated in the graphic above, the consensus is essentially split between a weak la nina event and a cold ENSO neutral season. This implies that the former is more likely early on in the winter season, and the latter later into the season. Guidance is firm that while another moderate la nina event is unlikely, it is also becoming increasingly improbably that we see a complete phase shift to an el nino for the coming winter, the likelihood of which is currently being assessed as just 6-8% by the IRI as of June 20. This conclusion is also supported by climatology. Spring Recovery & Current Intensity of La Nina Renders an El Nino Exceedingly Unlikely for Winter 2022-2023 When Considering Potential Pacific Analogs The MAM ONI value was calculated at -1.1, which is up from the FMA value of -1.0. Since 1950, the only two seasons to go on to qualify as an official el nino by current CPC standards during the subsequent cold seasons following a MAM ONI of -0.5 or lower are 1976 and 2018...both peaked as marginal la nina events at a mere -0.5 MAM ONI value, which is much lower than the current -1.1 reading. Furthermore, each of the aforementioned seasons peaked at +0.9 ONI, which extrapolated onto this season only yields a peak ONI of +0.3, which is warm neutral. Additionally, the recovery of the ONI value back down to -1.1 as of MAM was referenced earlier, which also casts doubt on the notion that our run of cold ENSO is coming to an end. The only two la nina seasons since 1950 to feature a re-intensification of la nina during the spring are 1975, which also came on the heels of two consecutive la nina events, and 1955. Both seasons went onto register official la nina events during the following winter season. In fact, the latter season ended up being the strongest Pacific analog for a myriad of different reasons throughout this past cold season. Namely, it was the only other la nina event as powerful as the one this past season that was biased as far to the east. It also featured the most extreme December RNA (-2.07) until this past December, which set the record with a value of -2.56. Indeed, there may be value to be gleaned from considering not only the behavior of the tropical pacific during potential ENSO analogs, but also during Pacific analogs in general. Using Behavior of ENSO Following Past Extreme RNA Months of December to Analogs In addition to this past December, the other extreme -PDO Decembers are 1955, as already mentioned, 1964, 2008 and 2010. In order to register an official el nino by CPC standards during the next cold season, there would need to be an observed recovery as drastic as 2009, on the heels of the extreme 12/2008 PDO, which recovered from a MAM 2009 ONI of -0.3 to +1.6 in NDJ. This extreme of a reversal in the equatorial Pacific would extrapolate back up to a peak of +0.8 ONI for the cold season, which would meet the criteria for an official weak el nino designation. However, the subsurface, while supportive of enough of a recovery to avoid a third consecutive la nina, is not conducive to the drastic recovery necessary to register an el nino peak next winter. The average temperature anomaly throughout the upper 300 meters of the ocean between 100 and 180 degrees longitude over the tropical Pacific, which encompasses from ENSO region 3 to 4, is a mere -.10C for the month of May 2022 and has been slowly propagating above the 100 meter level and rather aggressively eastward into the main ENSO region of 3.4. This compares to an average subsurface reading of +.87C for the same region in May of 2009. While this is in agreement with current guidance and climatology that ENSO neutral conditions remain a viable outcome given the slight upwelling and considerable advance of positive subsurface anomalies eastward throughout the main ENSO region, it is not at all suggestive of the notion that an el nino for boreal winter 2022-2023 is a realistic possibility. A conclusion that is also in accordance with the consensus derived from both guidance and climatology. Finally, although subsurface data is not available for May 1956 of 1965, since it has only been recorded since 1979, the value May 2011 subsurface value following the extreme RNA December of 2010 was recorded as +.47C, which is also significantly warmer than the May 2022 value of -.10c. The OND 2011 peak ONI value still registered as a la nina at -1.1C, which as a far cry from el nino. Thus in conclusion, the early consensus when considering both guidance, as well as climatological considerations with respect to both the current state of the subsurface and surface of the equatorial Pacific is for either weak la nina or ENSO neutral conditions for boreal winter 2022-2023. More on what that may entail regarding sensible weather conditions across the eastern US later on this summer and throughout the autumn.

If you don't read the blog, than how in the hell do you know what I said? I explicitly mentioned that I favored cool ENSO in my only June post. You make shit up. What a lonely, miserable soul...go count your money by yourself in your basement.

BTW, nothing says "expecting el nino" quite like my blog entry from June 23 ..."La Nina Advisory Remains in Place Through June"

Hurricane Ian Verification Offers Mixed Results Location and Timing of Landfall Forecast Nearly Flawless Here is how landfall of one of the most historic hurricanes in the history of the US, Hurricane Ian, evolved: Versus the Eastern Mass Weather Final Call, issued at roughly 730pm on Tuesday night: Fort Myers, FL was correctly identified as the most severely impacted major population center. Clearly the timing and location of the forecast was exemplary, having effectively incorporated climatology to disregard the consensus of guidance in the Monday night issuance of First Call: "Future Track of Ian Dependent Upon Interaction with Trough: Climo maybe the best Tool The track forecast is high confidence until Ian makes it around the western periphery of the high pressure node that is currently steering it into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. It is at this point that it will being to turn towards the north and potentially even north northeast, as we approach mid week and it becomes under the influence of the northern periphery of the ridge and the base of a trough to the north. The primary question then becomes will it lose enough longitude to reach the west coast of Florida, or will it remain off of the coast (and how far) until reaching the panhandle...there is simply no way to know for sure and educated guesses will rule the day. Here is the guidance that will inform said "guesses": Hurricane Track Guidance and Global Guidance Note the cluster to the east, in the general vicinity of Tampa... European Ensemble Suite There is similar cluster on the European suite, which has been admittedly biased to the east over the course of the past few days. GFS Ensemble Suite: A similar, albeit less defined trend is noted on the GFS suite, as the western mean seems to be pulled by a scattering of western outliers, as opposed to a concentrated cluster. Canadian Ensemble Suite: With such a stark dichotomy in forecast track, which is so crucial to intensity, as will be discussed momentarily, climatology may be the best guidance with respect to the future track of Hurricane Ian. And this is potentially grave news for the Tampa Bay metro area. Here is a graphic courtesy of Matt Gross, which lists all of the major hurricane strikes between 1900 and 2010 throughout the state of Florida. Note that the best guidance clustering is definitely within the eastern climo cluster, in the vicinity if Tampa. While it is too early to be confident, this is where the likelihood is highest at this point in time. All residents in this area should rush preparations to protect life and property to completion over the next couple of days. Especially since it is this eastern track scenario that offers the most intense landfall potential." While it was reasoned that the more eastern track offered a more intense scenario. as it turned out the forecast was not nearly intense enough. Landfall Intensity Forecast Left Much to be Desired The logic all throughout the forecast period was that a more eastern track would result in a more intense hurricane strike. But complicating matters was that interaction with the higher terrain of wester Cuba induced a premature Eye wall Replacement Cycle (EWRC) as it re emerged int the se Gulf of Mexico. The forecast final forecast philosophy was that while the further south and east track would avoid much of the shear and dry air intrusion, these inhibiting factors would become just prevalent enough prior to landfall to retard the ability to the hurricane to fully recover from this EWRC. Thus it was not forecast to intensify significantly prior to landfall. However, Ian ended up recovering just about as proficiently and quickly as physically possible, and this coupled with the fact that its size allowed to be virtually impervious to the marginal mitigating factors allowed to take full advantage of some very high octane oceanic heat content. While this was alluded to as a possibility in the Final Call, it was not forecast. "The one caveat that bares watching is that if Ian should complete the aforementioned EWRC and conditions are not prohibitive to intensification, the oceanic heat content is very high just off of the coast of Fort Myers, so the possibility of late intensification, though not forecast, can not be ruled out. Thus the forecast intensity of 115mph was well of the verified 150mph maximum sustained winds at landfall. FINAL GRADE: C

Just wanted to acknowledge how impressive the insight was throughout this thread during the evolution of this historic hurricane. I certainly learned a lot about intensity forecasting and undoubtedly much more to learn. Here is my verification write up for those interested: Hurricane Ian Verification Offers Mixed Results Location and Timing of Landfall Forecast Nearly Flawless Here is how landfall of one of the most historic hurricanes in the history of the US, Hurricane Ian, evolved: Versus the Eastern Mass Weather Final Call, issued at roughly 730pm on Tuesday night: Fort Myers, FL was correctly identified as the most severely impacted major population center. Clearly the timing and location of the forecast was exemplary, having effectively incorporated climatology to disregard the consensus of guidance in the Monday night issuance of First Call: "Future Track of Ian Dependent Upon Interaction with Trough: Climo maybe the best Tool The track forecast is high confidence until Ian makes it around the western periphery of the high pressure node that is currently steering it into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. It is at this point that it will being to turn towards the north and potentially even north northeast, as we approach mid week and it becomes under the influence of the northern periphery of the ridge and the base of a trough to the north. The primary question then becomes will it lose enough longitude to reach the west coast of Florida, or will it remain off of the coast (and how far) until reaching the panhandle...there is simply no way to know for sure and educated guesses will rule the day. Here is the guidance that will inform said "guesses": Hurricane Track Guidance and Global Guidance Note the cluster to the east, in the general vicinity of Tampa... European Ensemble Suite There is similar cluster on the European suite, which has been admittedly biased to the east over the course of the past few days. GFS Ensemble Suite: A similar, albeit less defined trend is noted on the GFS suite, as the western mean seems to be pulled by a scattering of western outliers, as opposed to a concentrated cluster. Canadian Ensemble Suite: With such a stark dichotomy in forecast track, which is so crucial to intensity, as will be discussed momentarily, climatology may be the best guidance with respect to the future track of Hurricane Ian. And this is potentially grave news for the Tampa Bay metro area. Here is a graphic courtesy of Matt Gross, which lists all of the major hurricane strikes between 1900 and 2010 throughout the state of Florida. Note that the best guidance clustering is definitely within the eastern climo cluster, in the vicinity if Tampa. While it is too early to be confident, this is where the likelihood is highest at this point in time. All residents in this area should rush preparations to protect life and property to completion over the next couple of days. Especially since it is this eastern track scenario that offers the most intense landfall potential." While it was reasoned that the more eastern track offered a more intense scenario. as it turned out the forecast was not nearly intense enough. Landfall Intensity Forecast Left Much to be Desired The logic all throughout the forecast period was that a more eastern track would result in a more intense hurricane strike. But complicating matters was that interaction with the higher terrain of wester Cuba induced a premature Eye wall Replacement Cycle (EWRC) as it re emerged int the se Gulf of Mexico. The forecast final forecast philosophy was that while the further south and east track would avoid much of the shear and dry air intrusion, these inhibiting factors would become just prevalent enough prior to landfall to retard the ability to the hurricane to fully recover from this EWRC. Thus it was not forecast to intensify significantly prior to landfall. However, Ian ended up recovering just about as proficiently and quickly as physically possible, and this coupled with the fact that its size allowed to be virtually impervious to the marginal mitigating factors allowed to take full advantage of some very high octane oceanic heat content. While this was alluded to as a possibility in the Final Call, it was not forecast. "The one caveat that bares watching is that if Ian should complete the aforementioned EWRC and conditions are not prohibitive to intensification, the oceanic heat content is very high just off of the coast of Fort Myers, so the possibility of late intensification, though not forecast, can not be ruled out. Thus the forecast intensity of 115mph was well short of the verified 150mph maximum sustained winds at landfall. FINAL GRADE: C

I thought I did a great job using climo as a tool to illustrate why the western edge of the track envelop was favored and that was dead on. Intensity forecasting is always a learning experience. This was from First Call on Monday: Future Track of Ian Dependent Upon Interaction with Trough: Climo maybe the best Tool The track forecast is high confidence until Ian makes it around the western periphery of the high pressure node that is currently steering it into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. It is at this point that it will being to turn towards the north and potentially even north northeast, as we approach mid week and it becomes under the influence of the northern periphery of the ridge and the base of a trough to the north. The primary question then becomes will it lose enough longitude to reach the west coast of Florida, or will it remain off of the coast (and how far) until reaching the panhandle...there is simply no way to know for sure and educated guesses will rule the day. Here is the guidance that will inform said "guesses": Hurricane Track Guidance and Global Guidance Note the cluster to the east, in the general vicinity of Tampa... European Ensemble Suite There is similar cluster on the European suite, which has been admittedly biased to the east over the course of the past few days. GFS Ensemble Suite: A similar, albeit less defined trend is noted on the GFS suite, as the western mean seems to be pulled by a scattering of western outliers, as opposed to a concentrated cluster. Canadian Ensemble Suite: With such a stark dichotomy in forecast track, which is so crucial to intensity, as will be discussed momentarily, climatology may be the best guidance with respect to the future track of Hurricane Ian. And this is potentially grave news for the Tampa Bay metro area. Here is a graphic courtesy of Matt Gross, which lists all of the major hurricane strikes between 1900 and 2010 throughout the state of Florida. Note that the best guidance clustering is definitely within the eastern climo cluster, in the vicinity if Tampa. While it is too early to be confident, this is where the likelihood is highest at this point in time. All residents in this area should rush preparations to protect life and property to completion over the next couple of days. Especially since it is this eastern track scenario that offers the most intense landfall potential.

I did note in my write up that if it ever were able to successfully complete the EWRC, that is may really benefit from what was a high octane gulf stream eddy off of Fort Myers, which is what happened IMO....in addition to trough moving in unison with it and accentuating outflow. But at the end of the day, I just didn't think that it would be able to just "flip the switch" so soon after that terrain induced EWRC, and it did so about as proficiently will ever be observed. I saw all of the visual signs of it nearing completion when I posted the blog Tuesday night, but I just felt like it would just get caught up in that "stats quo" ..."looks better, but no increase in winds" situation. I was going to wait until Wed AM to do my final, but figured, "what fun is looking at the answers to the test before you release". I knew within about 2 hours my intensity forecast, along with the sw FL coast, was doomed.

Well, right, but I had it coming in at 115mph...that's a big miss. There were plenty of forecasts, that while not as aggressive as reality, were still decent. "F" for intensity, A+ for timing and locale.

I'll post my results later. I ended up really doing well on LF timing and location, but I was in your camp on incorrectly hedging against that late round of intensification. My "city of focus" was Fort Myers.

You wouldn't know but for the weenie reservoir tip at the top.

CFS looks mild, but not as warm as out west

I figured that to be the case when hearing so many had stayed. I was saying on social media that this would rival Katrina...even if it hadn't intensified IMO.

I can't get over the idiots playing in the surge in Fort Myers Beach around midday...wow. Anyone have a good RAD shot at point of landfall? Thanks

I think it just went out..

They probably factored that in to the surge forecast, I would think....

That's part of what I missed in expecting it to "only" come in as a cat 3. Its easy to lose sight of how impervious these things can grow to be to their surroundings. Amazing sequence over the past 12-24 hours....hope people got the hell out.

Completely agree. That is what I expected, though I knew this was possible. Yikes.

I agree its questionable whether the winds will ramp up much, but I don't think it really matters, unfortunately. That surge is going to be devastating. The wobble north may be good news for Fort Myers, anyway.

Interesting. I realized this was land induced, but did not realize that those type are usually quicker. I'll know why if I miss a round of intensification.

Here are my Final thoughts...for whatever that is worth haha https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/09/hurricane-ian-to-have-devastating.html

Often times, they just never regather that same initial, pristine structure and thus intensity (I call it the "skunked" look, with ragged CDO, etc)...other times, they end up even more ferocious, thereafter....Katrina was one such example.