40/70 Benchmark

Yea, its off to a good start, but lets see where we are at near the end of October.

I actually think it will be early summer.....maybe even June, which will allow it to induce and couple with the IOD very well. I expect it to be another neg IOD event, since this should be a modoki el nino.

Eastern region has surged recently, but 1.2 is pretty prone to large fluctuation.

I figured...I hate having to go heterogeneous with respect to databases. I was hoping I was missing something.

I was very relieved to see that because some of what I am looking at implies a relatively dry season. I think we will see some boring periods, which may coincide with the coldest stretches...this is why a blockbuster probably won't happen.

This la nina is just about a lock to be a hybrid event.....which means its likely to have mixed characteristics of east and west based la ninas....you can see on the model simulations, the residual anomalies decay slowest between about 120 and 150* longitude....hallmark of a basin-wide, hybrid deal. This is entirely consistent with my blog-musings earlier this summer (July) regarding the ongoing subsurface dynamics. State of Subsurface Implies Continuation of Basin Wide Event Currently la nina remains in a basin wide state, with the strongest anomalies focused west-central region of 3.4. Back in June, la nina appeared rather stagnant given that the subsurface cold pool was rather meager, save for the extreme eastern region of 1.2. This is important because the Walker Cycle dictates that line nina is fueled up the upwelling of cooler subsurface water to the surface by easterly trade winds. Note that throughout July and August, region 4 and the western half of region 3.4 to approximately 140 degrees longitude have been engulfed by easterly trade winds (denoted by blue in the graphic below), which is forecast to continue through the duration of August. This is important because simultaneously the subsurface cold pool has been intensifying and tracking westward, thorough most or region 3.4. Thus the most likely area for continued cooling over the next one to two weeks is the central portion of 3.4, at the nexus of the subsurface cold pool and easterly trades. Further to the east, across regions 3 and 1.2, the easterly trades have yet to penetrate, thus there is no mechanism to upwell the cooler subsurface. And across the western flank, within region 4, there exists subsurface warmth. However, the surfacing of positive anomalies is not imminent given the considerable depth at which they are present beneath region 3.4. Thus expectation for the foreseeable future is that this event will continue to remain basin-wide with a central focus on region 3.4. This maintenance of a basin-wide appeal with a central focus is supported by most guidance at present: NCEP: EURO: CMC:

Euro implies a more dominant N Steam relative to that season, more typical of la nina

Try it with the ENSO region SSTs.....it defaults to 1991-2020 using NCEP/NCAR 1

@weatherwizHave you been able to successfully use the 1941-1970 climo base period? When I try to use it, I get a 1991-2020 default. 1951-2010 and 1981-2010 work out.

Cosgrove, without explicitly mentioning the year (I did it for him in a half-joking way, and he laughed) has been basically hedging 1995. I mean, his passages have been a clinic in how to tell me you are thinking 1995 without telling me that you're thinking 1995-

First time it has dropped in like 5 months...about time if it is indeed going to make moderate. Yea, for all of the bickering and back and forth we have done, we have always agreed that it should peak as moderate....you just hedge a bitter higher end moderate than I.

Part of me likes seeing some volatility in the seasonal composites because some of those early seasons maps don't necessarily scream "active" for our area, albeit cold. May not be the worst thing in the world to have the early cold break and take a swing at a phase change event.

I feel like a have a pretty good idea in the aggregate....my sequencing may be off again, like last year. But I don't see any reason at all to think a ratter is en route, nor a blockbuster....although I think there is a greater shot at the latter.

Well, 2001 and 2011 are two prime examples of cool ENSO seasons in which is did not happen....2005, as well, to a lesser extent. You can have the PAC jet wipe Canada clean of anomalous cold.

Yea, there will probably be an ugly stretch, as there is in most seasons at our latitude.

You also have to be careful because H5 can be deceiving....sometimes these orgasmic H5 looks don't end up great, and the more tepid looking charts really produce. As long as the source region is cold, then you can work with it.

I was pretty close each of the past two la nina seasons......don't get me wrong, I have had some terrible outlooks, but those were el nino seasons. I've been pretty good with la nina.

I think DJF is serviceable with a cold source region, but JFM is pretty rough.

Yea, I have those...meant the single months from Wxbell. Thanks, though.

Yea, hyperbole on my part to accentuate the point, but that is a pretty marginal -PNA IMO.

December doesn't look that cold to me.....I think the coast/lower elevation could struggle some...

Can anyone post January, Feb and March?

A gradient look in November isn't very wintery for most highly populated areas.

Agree. Some signs Novie could get mild...at least for a time.

Not as amplified as Dec 2000 out west, sure, but that doesn't look like much of a -PNA to me. December 2000 was a monster PNA, so I agree in that respect, but its not December 2021, either. Its closer to 12/2000 than 12/2021.