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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nice post. Only two issues with my thoughts from late Sunday/early Monday is that I rushed the RI by about 12 hours by underplaying the initial shear a bit, and probably need to adjust west a tad.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Cat 4 is like 50/50....def 3.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    There is quite a dichotomy among the top analogs and it's due to the behavior of the polar domain...this is why I attempted to use the solar cycle and QBO to gain insight into that a couple of week back.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    IR was expected tonight.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe 2002 to a degree...displaced a bit east.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll bet him...what is the bet?
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yep.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I said the exact same thing in my polar blog a couple of weeks ago...very similar to 2002 and 2009.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I mean, it's not everything...winter could still suck...but its something.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not a suprise to snowmen 1-18 and 20+.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's going to take off. Envt. was always supposed to be marginal during the day Monday.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Lots of buns in the main thread right now.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    One saving grace, Larry is that it probably won't have much time to expand.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Here is my first stab at it. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/newly-formed-idalia-likely-to-strike.html?m=1
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    One of the links I posted connected to the polar blog entry, rather than the extra tropical Pacific, as advertised.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, extratropical refers to much more than polar. I see what you meant earlier, maybe I posed an incorrect link. This one works. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/august-enso-update-potential.html?m=1
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    It makes sense to me because they don't have time for ERCs and other fluctuations. Most storms don't sustain that intensity for long, so you want rapid spin ups.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    1925, too.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, slight chance.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    What is your issue with that title? I have no clue what you are getting at...preliminary analysis of the polar domain for winter..IOW, my first thoughts about what the polar area may or may not look like this winter.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's not going to be worse than last year.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Anomalywise, decent shot we will not.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the odds are fairly strong that we will see a PV take shape in a couple of months, but let me know if you feel differently.
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