40/70 Benchmark

Lost cause for us. I checked out on this one yesterday.

+1" yesterday into early this AM.

True.

The last thing I want is another S of pike deal..I'd rather a RIC jack. You know it's bad when I speculate on the next region to bend me over.

I really felt like I blew it with respect to the jackpot area, which is the most important part.

Now primed for misses to the south....just can't win.

Season's First Significant Snowfall Forecast Fairly Well Max Snowfall Under Forecast The first significant snowfall of the 2022-2023 winter season, for at least the western half of the forecast area, is now behind us and it is time to offer a critique of the Eastern Mass Weather forecasting effort. It is apparent from the comparison below between the Eastern Mass Weather Final Call and actual snowfall totals that the forecast for the majority of the region was very accurate. However, what is also apparent is that there was in fact one glaring weakness with respect to the forecast map. And that is that the area of maximum snowfall over western Mass and NW Connecticut was positioned slightly too far to the north, but more importantly was too light. A forecast range of 5-9" would have been more representative for this area than the 3-6" forecast range. There is a reason why Eastern Mass Weather did not go quite so heavy with respect to totals in this region. Trust the Soundings There was model support for a period of significant snowfall that would accumulate very proficiently throughout much of western New England. The annotation above is a forecast sounding from the NAM model for Bradley International Airport, which is located in Winsdor Locks, Connecticut. What is very apparent is the well defined "crosshair" signature on the sounding for last night. A cross hair signature refers to when there is ample lift and moisture co located perfectly within the center of the snow growth zone, which is the area between -12 and -18 degrees Celcius that is ideal for the genesis of snow flakes. Immaculately developed dendrite accumulate much more efficiently than poorly developed once, which significantly impacts accumulations. This is why the forecast of 3-6" within that max zone was slightly heaver than some of the model guidance, which forecast no amounts of 6" or greater. However, not all guidance had a signal this emphatic, so the forecast remained relatively conservative. In hindsight this was clearly a mistake, especially since the location of the sounding, Winsdor Locks was not even in the area of heaviest forecast amounts. Thus the forecast soundings over the Berkshires were at least as impressive and likely featured an even more pronounced cross hair signature. It is with this in mind that the forecast obviously should have been more aggressive in this area. FINAL GRADE B-

I did view this excellent cross hair from the NAM for BDL, but the GFS wasn't as impressive. ...so I compromised a bit by going just a bit heavier than some of the more meager globals. What i should have been more mindful of was the fact that BDL was not event in the max zone, which would have caused me to go more aggressive in the max area. Brain cramp.

My forecast was dead on for everywhere except the max zone, which I also had a hair too far to the north....went with 3-6" and should have went 5-9". My rationale was that not all of the sounding data was aggressive as the NAM, but that obviously worked out. Final Grade: B- https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/12/seasons-first-significant-snowfall.html

That makes me dizzy

Even 1 more south of pike deal could do the trick...maybe another powdery CJ storm where scooter snorts streamers off of the ocean, and I get chocked out by subsidence. All of the kid's fuc*ing toys...out from under the tree and propagating or down welling onto the street..whatever the hell you want to call it. I'm ready to decouple.

All I need right now is a mid Atlantic special to quit weather.

I only see one major potential.

I'm normally one of the better spots in SNE during la nina, but not these events.

Its been going on for years, though.

Agree. I am not in any way doing that....just need to melt after a squash southwest, then rain.

I'm not out on the season....just supremely frustrated after how this season has started following the last several years of misfortune. On paper, this pattern/season is still fine....but @Ginx snewx was asking me why my seasonal snowfall numbers were not closer to 2010-2011, despite the pattern being similar. This month is a perfect testament to just how special those seasons are. It takes more than just a pattern, but one complemented by exceptional luck. All of that said, just for context....Dec 2010 was very similar and then took off right after Xmas. This can still do that.

One more shot before Xmas, 1 more before NY...then at that point, the thaw is on the horizon.

All 3 of these la ninas have had the same underlying traits/have and have nots...tenor has been like dead-nuts same with some different indecies etc.. Rinse and repeat....if your locale isn't in the meteorologocial "click", then you just get the train run on you for 3 years.

I think these nuances are that can save the ORH hills and even the lower terrain WOR. Agreed. I don't think it will be enough here.

Such a disappointing evolution. Holy shit, do I need an el nino.

Quick, someone post a H5 chart from 12/27...I need to restore some semblance of faith in the long range.

I thought December would get off to a slow start, but end up with a few SWFEs...what I didn't realize is not much snow would precede the SWF.

Anyone east of the ORH hills needs to prey for a break with respect to the system on or around 12/23ish.

Shocking...its been locked onto this since 00z Sunday.