40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Its generally a pretty good area....like Wilmington with slightly better retention. Its not a great spot for coastal jackpots, but it generally does well overall.
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Exactly, otherwise I wouldn't have mentioned it.
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I just thought it was comical seeing the first big run of the year show that within the context of the last several years.
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These days, apparently.
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Exactly....and I'm not quite far enough north, west, east or south.
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That image sums up the snowfall distribution from the last several seasons.
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Can't make this shit up
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At some point it needs to stop, but it just doesn't.
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Would I ever lose my shit...
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Man, that is one hell of a split flow out west on Sunday.
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I totally glossed over that in my write up yesterday, so would have to back pedal if that keeps trending.
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Yea, give me a microscope to hone in on mesoscale storm dynamics instead of trying to increase general resolution across the global canvass....its helpful to a point.
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I feel like all of these additional data streams is like adding fentanyl to the weenies' crack.
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Runs that don't have snow for Brooklyn.
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I guess confidence intervals would be a better portrayal of how I feel about this season. I am supremely confident that it won't be a ratter, but much less confident that I won't bust low on snowfall.
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This is something that you can only completely appreciate with forecasting experience....took me several years of doing those outlooks to grasp it, but those 2018, and 2019 double-busts taught me a great deal. You especially have to be careful in la nina because its much more difficult to get an epic season as compared to el nino.
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We could replicate 2010-2011 10 more times, and maybe do as well in one of those simulations....don't forget that.
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Relatively conservative, and I think the correction vector is upwards with those, but keep in mind that I also expect some not so favorable tracks, too. At the end of the day, snowfall is an educated guess. But yes, maybe I get 90" instead of 65" if we get lucky.
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I think we will have a better Pacific in January, so its not all block dependent. It didn't reload in January 2011, but the Pacific took the handoff.
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Pending results, this season was one of the easier forecasts of the nine years that I have been doing this.
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DJ of my primary ENSO analog composite: DJ Primary QBO composite:
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2010 and 2020 were my two primary QBO analogs, and were each on my list of 5 primary ENSO analogs. 2020 is also a great match...its actually the only the only year that was a x3 inclusion on my primary analog composite.
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PD II and 12/5/2003 come to mind....
