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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    EPS actually looks centered over the DM for 2/28. GEFS trended a bit better at 12z and GEPS worse.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that is why I may need to adjust...I really missed that in my first eval. May need to reconsider on Tuesday. What you said about cold exertion offsetting advection really clarified what you mean...my reluctance is that is normally more applicable to the low levels. Maybe across the full profile here...we'll see.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    It really wasn't knock. When I am on the run and looking for an honest assessment, you are one of the posters I look to read for a "no shit" eval. But its not only in shit winters....you even doing in the lead up to impending blizzards. You remind me of messenger in that you are always looking for how the other shoe may drop via subtle trends.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hopeful....I'll make one final call on Tuesday.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm just being sarcastic..but remaining unbiased and searching for means of failure are essentially synonyms.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    When you are optimistic, it must be painfully obvious....your baseline is neurotically searching for means of failure lol
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea...phase-change event.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Several sub 980mb lows showing up just east of MA.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wow...this end of month bomb is in flux and trending...
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yay, 3" instead of 1" lol
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I haven't been sleeping much any might these days, so no problem
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hope you're right...at this juncture, I would rather need to adjust colder, than warmer...that's why I was tame on first call....especially given the mood in the room lol
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    It funnels down along the coastal plain on a NE wind to the right of the ORH hills...like a back door front.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is in the lower levels and has little impact on snowfall.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not sure how any times can say no changes are expected in the Pacific. Pretty sure I just said yesterday that winter is over if the arctic fails to deliver.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Bottom line....don't go through the next 2-3 weeks with the persistence blinders on because there is explosive potential....the atmosphere doesn't give a flying fuc* how much snow did or did not fall in YBY over the past 2 months.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'd literally give my left nut to verify member e30 of the EPS with the 952mb over the BM.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Obviously its a probably a miss, but the trend was positive last night.
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  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    As far as 2/28, what needs to happen is that energy in the SW needs to kick out a bit more slowly, as that allows for more residual ridging from the Rockies into the nation's mid section. EURO and GEM are very close...06z GFS trended the other way.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    06z GFS def colder....plenty of time to turn back the other way, though.
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