40/70 Benchmark

I'm ready for that, but don't "expect" it...

I would think we'd get a significant snowfall before the end of the month.

Yea, same here.

I was going to say that, but figured maybe it was just a snapshot.

Yes, the fact that the pattern didn't persist for a very long time played into our inability to capitalize, especially given the fact that we had to wait for the block to retrograde after initially being a bit too fat to the east.

Yea, same here....last 4 not including this season. I'm just talking about the worst of it.

I wouldn't be shocked to see a Feb 2021 type of evolution, though.

This is why I haven't kept ramming that down people's throats and have backed off......fact of the matter is, we are halfway through winter with just about zero snow and my big January idea was a whiff, regardless of whether its just delayed, etc. Gotta read the scoreboard...and the room and know when to just let things be for a while.

Your awful luck season was 2 years ago....mine was more last year.

The patterns haven't really been head fakes....aside from rushing the return of the good look in January. The head fakes have been more relative to individual storms going to crap.

I'm confident that this winter will turn the corner and won't end up as vile as it looks right now. I feel like I just messed the timing up. Not sure if you saw the parallels to Dec-Jan 2001-2002 that I made earlier, but its been a decent analog, thus far. I actually doubled up on that year in my forecast composite, but again...my timing was clearly off. Difference between this year and that year is that while we have had a +EPO overall, which was expected, there hasn't been a death star vortex camped out over AK like there was in 2001-2002. I'm pretty confident this will flip. I could see a latter January-Feb driven by PNA/poleward Aleutian ridging, with maybe a more el ninoish/blocky finish in March.

Yes. 1957, 1976, 1986, 2002 and 2014. I like 57, 86 and 2002 best because I don't think it will be weak. It should be a reasonably strong el nino that is not east-based and doesn't suck.

I am really excited for next year. I can't wait to start that thread on a cold, windy, and dry day in mid March.

Speed of the server isn't one of the qualities that I prioritize with respect to data....I get the impulsive D-drip from this site. I just want quality data with good graphics to go back and parse through when making the forecasts.

Tell it to try harder.

That was ++NAO and +PDO Dec.....but yea, it stunk. Just not a great match...

Too easy....I'll let a novice do the honors...

Weak events focus on SNE, and stronger mid atl....but good for all.

1963-1964 is borderline with respect to meeting the criteria....

For those feeling down and out about recent winters, take solace in warm ENSO following 3+ consecutive years of cold ENSO:

I could do without the -90 experience.

As cool as it would be to live there an experience that, I don't think I would be as into the seasonal forecasting aspect. Its such a rush to chase the unique set of seasonal variables that marry and lend themselves to a great winter here...its what drives the ambition to try to sort the pieces to the puzzle out correctly. I feel like living in a LE snowbelt would be like playing against the atmosphere in an ice hockey game in which the atmosphere has its goalie pulled all year.

They have a bit more elevation there, no?