40/70 Benchmark

I think a warning event is a good expectation, but I'm leaning closer to the ceiling than that.

That isn't clown range. I think it happens....or like 2/3s of it, anyway.

Ha....oh believe me....DEAL.

Its 5-6....

I mean...its still a ratter, even with a 20-spot...but you just can't summarily write everything off.

I know.....still a good testament to how fraudulent that whole mindset is, regardless.

Persistence.....of the lips of that whole dissenting voice around my asshole. How's it taste?

I don't like the ridging over the southwest in that composite, but otherwise, I think it looks doable.

Obviously everyone has seen the uptick is modeling cinema to begin the month of March....most notably the EURO and ICON, which jive with my thoughts from November. Lets see how this holds up.... March 2023 Outlook March Analogs: 1956, 1962, 1965, 1971, 1975,1981,1984, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2013, 2018 Obviously confidence at this range is modest at best, but if there is to be another major disruption of the polar vortex and a return to high latitude blocking, it will be this month. And while a SSW warming event is unlikely, if there is one to occur it will be from latter February into March and it will be a race against the ascending sun angle for winter enthusiasts to reap the benefits. Historically speaking, blocking during the month of March during a W QBO/cool ENSO season is unlikely, but if it does indeed come to fruition, than the mid Atlantic could potentially receive more in the way of significant snowfall. W QBO/Cool ENSO FM H5 But one factor working in favor of a return of high latitude blocking is that la nina should be just about dissipated by this point, thus the March 2023 forecast composite implies that it is possible: If there is to be a second window for major winter storm development, it would be between March 1 to 15th. This is, again, a low confidence venture, and winter should end in relatively unremarkable manner should it fail to come to fruition. March 2023 Forecast Temp Anomalies: 1951-2010: 1991-2020: March 2023 Forecast Precip Anomalies: 1951-2010: 1991-2020:

39.4/27 here.

I have a few open slots....lol

I'm just making light of the fact that you seem to be experimenting with that model this year.

Yea....thinking of moving...

Raindance nailed this season....explicitly stated in his outlook that lots of storms in the east would lack cold air. Most prickly guy you will ever come across on here, but knows his stuff.

Tip has an ICON fetish on the DL...its his dirty 'lil secret..Shhhh...

Looked marginal at the surface during the height of it, but yea...its not like we are dependent on evap cooling or anything.

Yes, fair statement. But there is also a legit shot one of these systems pans out if the block situates favorably.

Don't let facts get in the way of a nice persistence rant....

Yes, even on the EURO, its marginally cold enough until after the storm passes.

I get the argument against it...what I have zero use for is the contingent of posters (obviously not you) that are just mentally on auto pilot and bring nothing to the table, aside from a few snide remarks in the direction of anyone venturing to entertain the notion of major snow. That gets older than this winter's pattern.

Let the mindless persistence drones dribble on.

I posted a pic on BOX's Twitter.

GEM trended in like fashion...just not all of the way there. Looks like 12z Euro. Should be interesting.

That is a firehose, man....that is like a March 2013/April 1997 type animal. The way that goes nuts s of LI, someone would pull at least 3''/hr...probably several inches. Would be man paste, too....marginal surface but cold aloft with artic coming behind it.