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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its tough to doubt raindance's idea of an el nino looking pretty much like the last 3 la nina events given the -PDO....but I highly doubt that snowfall will be as anemic as it was this past season....just about impossible in the mid atlantic and coastal SNE.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I never, ever would have guessed....
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right. As much as I love that season, it won't be on my short list. It was actually east based, but so weak it didn't really matter.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hey, looks like a got the smoke jack
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    36.5
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Everyone run and hide before the ENSO eats us all alive
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think we can toss 1976-1977 based on the PDO....was pretty positive that year.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Got my first round of mowing in on Saturday...gorgeous wknd.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Again...I have no issue with a neutral to negative PDO ....but just not sure a top 5 el nino in terms of intensity, or extremely eastern biased ordeal is a certainty.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    JMA looks like the CANSIPS...mod-strong, basin wide ordeal with high latitude blocking and -PDO
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    If its warm, its warm...oh well, but we will have a better chance of a large scale event than this past season...obviously Jan 2016 and the Megalopolis system...but even 12/23/97 produce 8" in an hour not too far from me.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, I have a sneaking suspicion that if the winter panels were more reminiscent of a super-strength, canonical el nino, then you wouldn't have ignored them.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    The CANSIPS has a wintry pattern for the east.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree.
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  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Canadian actually looks pretty good to me at H5.....good amount of EPO and NAO blocking, though I don't place much stock in seasonal guidance at this range with respect to the polar domain. The H5 representation does support what I was saying about it being more of a basin-wide with a central focus look....slight east bias. But its very tough to get this look with a strong, east-based canonical el nino.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the Candian is a bit more central based than a '72, '91 and '97 composite.....not to mention I still not sure that it will end up as strong as that composite would suggest. I have no issue with the PDO parallels....
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm still wrapping up my recap and grading of last season and haven't really looked at much yet, but just based on what raindance has contributed, I am inclined to agree.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think we can all agree the Pacific not being entirely hostile is more important...the NAO just affords a bit of margin for error.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Big +NAO signal, even though it isn't exactly balmy...snowfall is great in the east unless el nino goes Berserk.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is the thing...its a catch 22. It needs to migrate west in order for el nino to flourish......but if you want a mild winter, then its needs to thread the needle in order to trigger el nino sufficiently, while relegating the resultant forcing to the eastern regions. Very possible, but we just don't know that yet.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is my point....we saw the opposite last year, when la nina was east based into November, then abrupty shifted into a modoki for winter.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Rather have that taking place now, than October.
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