40/70 Benchmark

Right.

1948. Multivariate ENSO Index (webberweather.com)

Its just one tool....the problem is that everyone is looking for a that fail-proof "silver bullet" in seasonal forecasting and once we realize that any new concept isn't that, then its automatically mocked and considered useless. No wonder progress is so slow with that mindset because I don't think there is any failproof indicator....the atmosphere is too complicated.

The MEI and RONI did not reflect el Nino at all that season.

I feel like part of the issue that year was people taking into a consideration a weak el nino when forecasting, but the atmosphere wasn't in el Nino mode.

Same crap last fall about la nina...peak ONI was 1.0....

Good thing there is never any ENSO hype-

Look at the majority of good winters and it was mainly due to one great month.

I agree. People need to remember that just because the mean DM charts depict modoki forcing doesn't mean it will be pinned at the dateline from 12/1 through 3/31.

"It’s technically going to be considered basin wide simply because the nino itself is so strong it has no choice but to engulf the whole region" You realize by basin wide we mean that the greatest anomalies end up relatively evenly distributed or centrally located, right?

I mean, I feel like he thinks we are arguing that every month will be modoki orgies....the western forcing to me means that we will get favorable stretches....sure, one month will probably blow.

One cold month is fine for NE snowfall, though...that is the point. No one is implying wall-to-wall cold...punt one month, get one near normal and a cold one. All I am saying is that I don't see a wretched snowfall season for the NE like some folks are insinuating. I don't care about extreme cold...I just want ot cold enough to snow. BTW, I would be perfectly happy with 5/8 years you mention. You say the composite will be warmer/shifted NW....fine. But I also feel as though the warmer Atlantic may mean more major storms.

It's so tough to go cold bc even if its cold enough to snow, the climate doesn't radiate well any more with all of the CO2 and greenhouse gases, etc...that brings the departures up.

Strong is fine....I am talking 2.0 and above.

I would need to see overwhelming evidence late in the fall...odds always favor warmer this day and age...doesn't mean its going to be a snowless torch bc I don't think it will.

Yea, you have a point about July, despite there being no obscene heat stretches...but not June and August.

I think in this global landscape, the max temp anomaly map is more representative bc global warming is much more evident at night than during the day. We simply don't radiate well anymore.

Not in the meteorological sense, but what I am saying is that it makes a great difference in terms of sensible appeal and perception...if that happens in winter, one scenario has a string of highs in the 50s and the other maybe a stray 40+ or two with a string of 30s. January 2021 was like that...the map made it look like a torch, but we had days and days of highs in the 30s to near 40.

I have already said that I wouldn't expect a cold winter with a ONI near 2.0....all I am implying is that there are signs that it won't be another all-out disaster for eastern snow enthusiasts.

Don't you use seasonal guidance to validate some of your thoughts? I know I have seen you do that.... I don't get the logic of implying that anyone is expecting a 2009-2010 redux. This is a forum with alot of hobbyists and we learn as we go...I'm not sure why you feel the need to assume it's anything other than that, or the need to use a "crutch". I can only speak for myself and try to look at what went wrong and adjust, which is why I'm trying to not be so over reliant on ENSO ssts. I think you are the best forecaster on this forum, but you are so adversarial....either someone is copying you, or they are a moron and you can't bother to entertain their thought process.

That is all due to overnight lows...classic fraudulent torch

.86" rainfall here...mega band just SSE of me.

Well, the MEI and RONI were noth high that year bc the west PAC was cool...like all of the classic intense el nino events. If it ends up like that, then sure.

I think the 8 normal winters in a row is more likely attributable to GW than the less snowy run since 18-19....we were due for that. Its largely been because of the Pacific.

Its too early to know where anything will lineup for winter until winter, and often even then we don't know. All we can do is make informed judgment based off of the information at hand and gudiance.