40/70 Benchmark

I wonder why they haven't update the MEI since April...annoying. If they do that this fall I will lose my shit. lol

I would take 4-6 weeks and run if you offered that to me now.

I will say, I do not think that a very high ACE this season automatically dismisses that relrationship, either....as we well know, none of these correlations are perfect. There still may be something to this, regardless.

Yea, good test.

Giving a cursory glance and the highest ACE seasons due tend to focus around low solar...interesting to see what happens this year. I know raindance said he isn't sold on a hyperactive season.

I swear, if someone said "Well at least snow chances can't fall off of the planet since the world is round", you would promptly dig up some peer reviewed piece claiming that the earth is flat-

Yep, no argument...although I would add that there are also varying degrees there.....seasonal forecasting is an impossible enough endeavor as it is, so you inherently need some level of luck to present a servicable product. But some efforts are definitely better than others.

I agree with this.....the term "luck" is really just a succinct and convenient concession that we can't possibly know every infinitesimal variable and element at play. In this case, it was not as if the parent mid level system was too far north because it wasn't an issue of latitude. Locales at elevation around here had over 30", which would not have happened if the parent system were too far north. What happened was the lingering appendage low over interior CT allowed the lower levels to flood with just enough warm air to prevent a blizzard. No way of knowing that would have happened very far in advance, regardless of whether or not there was a se ridge. CT/RI and the mid atlantic you can blame the pattern....sure, but not from around the MA pike and up.

If there had been a cleaner trasnfer to the coast, then most of SNE would have gotten croacked. ...but there was a provisional appendage low that lingered over interior CT prior to complete trasnfer. I forecast these storms and scrutinize them obsessively and have a very firm grasp of my regional climo. Again, I agree with you that the seasonal pattern was a factor in something like that taking place, but its not entirely due to that. There are some awful seasons when it comes together perfectly and other great seasons when we still just don't get quite a proficient enough of a phase, etc. ...there is certainly some luck involved. I feel like your thought process needs to be a bit more nuanced in this case.

Yes, it did. Sure, the pattern wasn't perfect, but there was a meso low that formed in CT as opposed to a clean transfer. Now, I agree that something like that is more likely to happen due to the pattern at hand, but that precise mesoscale evoution did not have to take place. I am speaking for SNE....that pattern is probably prohibitive for the mid atl, but it is not for SNE....not in early March, anyway.

I do not at all agree. Early March is plenty of time to cash in on snow chances...I mean, it would have been nice to have the pattern set in earlier because that would have afforded a larger window, sure.

While you are certainly correct about this, part of the reason why March 2023 failed was just brutal luck, as well. About 40 miles away from Boston had a 3' snowfall in March 2023 and it was only some idiosyncracies with the respect to the development of the secondary that prevented the immediate Boston area from pulling off a very memorable snowfall, as well. Again, there is validaty to your assertion, but as always the devil is in the details.

TBH, I am hoping the La Nina gets going because it will further bolster what looks to be an active tropical system. And a hyper active ACE is also probably our best shot at avoiding another bottom dweller of a winter, rather than ENSO neutral.

2014-2015 was definitely a weak el Nino and not neutral.

Well, I follow you on Twitter and you aren't like that there...which is probably why you generate the interest since your seasonal work is great. I do think people would get turned off if you went on there and talked to folks like they were idiots and made baseless accusations of people plagiarizing your stuff.

While not record setting by any means, it is in fact out of the orinary....its anomalous. I get what you mean, though....it doesn't interest me, either.

90's is hot any time of year, but definitely in June....that is more likely in July/August.

I like DT as a medium range forecaster, but I think he, like most mets, leaves much to be desired on a seasonal level. One thing I have noticed with him is that he tends to employ a very reductive train of logic....ie "neutral ENSO as opposed to La Niña=better winter". I am with you on rolling my eyes on that take...not to mention that I think its premature and highly presumptive for anyone to be touting ENSO neutral at this stage..

I feel like it will break unexpectedly before the end of the decade, but not this coming season.

I agree.

I agree we are in a "rut" period akin to the 80's, only adjusted warmer due to CC....it's also a different type of "rut", since that was a +PDO period....often those winters were done in by a lack of high latitude blocking, but this period has been marked by an extra tropical Pacific regime so hostile that it has largely negated any episodes of blocking, which has become easier to do given the warmer climate.

1965-1966 was my main analog last year, but the sensible result was worlds different.

I agree with this, but the majority of models are weak right now...sure, EURO is among the weakest and likely too weak, but the moderate guidance are outliers.

Absolutely..well said. Its important to acknowledge that there was some bad luck involved, too. As fleeting and few and far between as they were, we had some explosive windows that went for not.

My opinion on why that is the case is two things: 1) You are right that people post most frequently about weather that is perceived as being intresting, which mild winters are not. 2) His posting style is very confrontational and not very welcoming...most of his interactions with others have a very incedinary, condescending undertone that invites conflict. People are turned off by that and try to avoid it...conflict is exhuasting and produces negative energy. And I know he doesn't care what people on an internet forum think of him, but it is what it is. Don't forget, I think the winter outlook thread with the most replies I have ever seen was @Stormchaserchuck1's "This will be the warmest winter on record" thread on Eastern back in the fall of 2006. Attitude has a lot to do with it....turn people off, and your work will be overlooked more because interaction with the author is viewed as a chore rather than purely an opportunity for enlightenment via a sharing of thoughts.