40/70 Benchmark

Yea, I obviously know GW is real and therefore it must be influencing the patterns, but my issue is that he is also making some large assumptions moving forward.

And I didn't think this regime would last forever because GW, either....so it has nothing to do with a bias. When it happens again...because it will, albeit warmer all around, I will say the same thing.

I used pejorative terms because I don't see what my forecasting bias had to do with my belief that we will still have variations. Just seemed like you taking a jab. And as far as my emotions affecting my forecasts...I think that was the case years ago. But not today. I correctly forecasted some decent blocking last year, but it was negated by pretty unique circumstances out west. The only thing I love more than winter is jamming a correct forecast down the throat of my detractors en route to my own personal enrichment, so trust me....what I want most is to get it right.

Wonderfully stated and this is all I am arguing. It seems to me that @bluewave is arguing that the variability is going away, as least in terms of the pattern. I don't see that, but even it were to happen, it would take a long time to definitively reach that conclusion.

AGAIN.....no one is debating global warming. What I am debating is the notion that this current global regime that favors warmer NE RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE NATION is going to become fixed in place permanently. I am not debating the warming in an absolute sense. BTW, I was also skeptical of the "warm blob" becoming a permanent fixture, and that favored a colder east.

Right......this is why I am about as transparent as humanly possible. How does me asserting that cyclical variations have always taken place explain my bias? Sounds like a deflection like tactic born of an infantile temper tantrum. But I know you aren't like that....must be global warming? And let me know again when you are going to take the time to author an outlook and then spend an equal amount of time reporting on your own biases....and you probably won't, so I guess we can attribute that to global warming-

I call bullshit on this. I know you are one of those people who attributes every fart to global warming, but if you look at a composite of the previous several winters, from like 2008-2014, we were one of the colder regions...and back then GW had supposedly led to the N PAC warm blob. No one will ever win against an argument like this because its self-sustaining, circular logic. Each change is permanent and due to GW...until it changes, then the change is due to GW and the new state is permanent. Rinse and repeat.....silly. I do buy the idea that GW is contributing to and protracting these extreme patterns, but cyclical changes have always existed.

Funny, I came to that same conclusion yesterday using a totally different method....comprising a composite of best summer precip and temp matches.

I feel like GW causes us to get stuck in more extreme patterns for longer durations of time....no research, just my anecdotal ob....this can sometimes lead to some extreme cold of duration, like '13-'14 and '14-15'. But more often than not, it means warmth, obviously....so maybe in that sense, the strong of warm NE winters relative to the rest of the nation IS due to GW to some degree, but that isn't permanent.

Congrats on the title next week.

Don't forget.....global warming is impacting nighttime lows much more than it is daytime highs, as well....so 1-2F above average at this latitude really isn't a big deal.

I think some people see the deep red and expect last year...that isn't what it means. It just means they are relatively confident that it will be somewhat above normal...which isn't saying that much.

You aren't getting my point. I am speaking of temperature relative to other regions...not absolute temperature. "More than some"...what does that even mean? I'm sorry, the NE being the warmest part of the country over the past several years has nothing to do with global warming AFAIC. The NE being warmer than the NE was two decades ago? Sure.

Obviously some of this is due to the warming background.....but @ORH_wxman has pointed out that the NE being warmer than everyone else means we are also due for some colder regression in this area relative to other regions.

I'll take the under on 2015-2016 temps.

Certainly, more opportunities than mid September...and last winter.

Peaked early on in SO at .80, then neutralized for winter.

THE SINGLE most important element in seasonal forecasting is the ability of the forecaster to fully appreciate that no single atmospheric driver operates in a vacuum or independent from other variables. The atmosphere is the most elaborate and synergic entity that this world will ever know. I feel like many struggle with this concept as it pertains to ENSO, as our society as cultivated a strong fixation on ONI and region 3.4. At the end of the day, what happens around region 3.4 is every bit as integral a piece to the seasonal puzzle as what happens within those waters. This winter will provide a splendid illustration of this.

I'm not expecting anything obscene up here....but after last season, it will be a breath of fresh air. In the mid Atlantic, all bets are off-

I think it may flip.

I agree with you. I don't expect a frigid winter.

Well, it's like having a 961mb low with a 1000mb high...people like you will oil themselves up and have alone time over the pretty 961mb low, while ignoring upstream. Impressive, sure, but the overall system isn't all that anomalous.

I honestly couldn't care less. That said, it should be warmer than average...but I don't care if I only radiate down to 21 instead 17 on clear nights....as long as its 31 when it counts.

Total agreement.