Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    72,462

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I thought it was decent down there but decided to play it safe....My presence around this place predates subforums, so I know it pisses people off when someone from New England decides what they should consider acceptable. lol
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right...I am. Doesn't mean an awful season down there, but it just limits ceiling...like big STJ does here. I'm sure you would take a 1977-1978, though that was +PDO....-PDO and n stream dominant is more like 2004-2005, which you wouldn't like, but I still think el nino is strong to ensure a bonafide STJ presence this season.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    In December, I agree.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Could also mean more N stream involvement, which is a trade I would make...give me 2005 over 2010 any day of the week.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Some gradient like periods, as well maybe.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel like we endure some unfavorable la nina like stretches this season.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was fine with how you did it...I got it. Bottom line is that the PDO will prevent a very cold winter in the east and the polar domain will need to be favorable for a good season.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Of course it is....but compare 1994 to the other 4. That is all I was saying. Clearly a +PDO modoki has colder potential than a negative PDO season. I don't think anyone expects a frigid eastern US winter.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    94-95 also had residual impact from Pinatubo...94-95 and 2006-2007 were also descending solar, which bolsters PV IMO....there is a solar lag, which is why the seasons lag, so it stands to reason that the most hostile seasons for high latitude blocking are following solar max.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely agree. Been my stance all summer and fall...also, if you look at the periodicity of these uber el ninos, we just aren't quite there yet....its only been 8 years.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right....but in the east......where most of us live.....they were drastically different and that is because of the polar domain. I understand your point and its valid, but I feel like it was confusing to bin them that way without specifiying.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Add in March, which was very wintery in 2005.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Notice how the east isn't really warm? Polar domain....for folks living in the NE, they are night and day.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think 2005 is a good example of how we can get a favorable outcome this year...a "ceiling" if you will. I understand that el nino is significantly stronger and Boston is not getting a 100". Agreed...I just mean the east in general.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I get your point about it not being a cold modoki due to the PDO, but I think its misleading to bin it with 1995 without at least referencing the major difference in the polar domain. I think this dichotomy is actually a splendid illustration of why the polar fields will be crucial this season given the state of the Pacific. We also had more ridging in the EPO region in 2005.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    1995 had a window in February, but the blocking was less anomalous and more transient.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I mean...you do the math:
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree here...I have been saying that all winter....and 2005 bolsters that argument because it was the big second half blocking that lead to the blockbuster Miller B season. I understand that, but it wasn't that warm in the mean...no one compared it to Feb 2015. Grouping it with 1994 is silly.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Again, 2004-2005 is being mischaracterized here....the season was biased in the mean by a very prominent early season PV, however, there was a distinct duality to that season....the second half had severe bouts of high latitude blocking...much more anomalous than 1995, which is why it was one of the most prolific seasons in SNE history.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Grouping 1994 with 2004 seems absolutely laughable to anyone residing in SNE...two totally different seasons. I feel like you are getting carried away binning seasons together simply because they each had a + DM temp anomaly. The orientation of el nino is not "moot" because of a sample size of two that were significantly varied from one another in their own right. I had a 107.5" just north of Boston in 2005 with a 60" average.....that works as a modiki in my book.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks. Outlook #10 is underway....
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Do you know how to find historic wind data?
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    It definitely can for me...last year wasn't historically bad here....just a run-of-the-mill terd.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not that concerned about a blow torch....I mean, that Philosophy works if you just toss darts at a dart board, but I'm pretty confident it won't be your prototypical very warm el nino...at least not prohibitively so. Just want an active track for the area.
×
×
  • Create New...