The usual negative mode of the Methuen snowfall oscillation in full effect....too far east in the first event, south in the last event and now west/north.
Yea, el Nino may end as a Modoki, but I don't think it will make much difference. The pattern should be great in Feb, regardless and in the seasonal mean, I will still consider it as being basin-wide.
Right, but your area into the mid atl can achieve climo snowfall in one event. And it just so happens that the odds of such an event far exceed climo this year. Even @bluewavewould attest to that.
@AllsnowA slow start makes a huge season less likely, which isn't expected, anyway....but if the season evolves remotely as anticipated, climo snowfall will not be a tall task.
Think about it...which is the snowiest ENSO state? El Nino....which is harshest in December? El Nino-
Well, it doesn't have to be warm, but its not a stock cold pattern like it is later in the season.
I agree it shouldn't be too warm with the higher heights near AK all else equal...would be a welcome change.
Nothing good IMO....gonna be an uphill battle with descending solar and high geomagnetic energy. Better hope we cash in this season and maaaaaybe next season because it will get lean for a few years IMO.
12/5 is what I consider open climo on big dog climo for SNE....through to about 3/31. Save the puns about the pattern...I get that it sucks. This is strictly climo.