40/70 Benchmark

I would rather have it, too........definitely makes it easier to have staying power.

This may be a big night of runs....I don't trust the GFS with east coast cyclogenesis and convective intricacies....

Yes...that is what I was recalling ...

You probably would have lost it near the onset of 2/6/78 lol

Messy Mid Week Possible Following Season's First Significant Winter Storm This Weekend Tropics & Polar Domain in Conflict The first weekend of the year promises to be a crucial point of inflection for the the 2023-2024 winter season. Not only will this weekend's impending winter storm have a significant impact on Sunday travel plans, but concurrent with this will be developments in the polar stratosphere that will have important implications on the balance of the winter season. Incidentally, there is now strong agreement amongst guidance that the long awaited split of the polar vortex that has been eagerly anticipated dating back to this past fall (between Christmas and January 8th) will be taking place concurrent with our Sunday snowfall. Despite the fact that a technical SSW may not occur. This is reflected by what is forecasted to be a very disturbed polar domain for the foreseeable future. However, the deep trough that is forecasted to amplify over the Western CONUS this weekend is also forecasted to persist well into the month of January. This is due to the fact that the MJO is forecasted to amplify in phase 4 by mid month. This will only serve to bolster the west coast trough per both the MJO phase 4 January composite: And MJO regression guidance. The synoptic evolution that will follow includes the polar vortex lobe in the vicinity of James Bay initially descending into the western US. A sequence that will reenforce the deep western trough at the same time that a major storm system is ejecting out of the Southwest next week. While primarily rainfall is expected across the region, stay tuned for potential updates over the course of the next week for updates regarding how this system will interact with the developing NAO block. INITIAL THREAT ASSESSMENT:

Next week could be plowable for S NH, N ORH county and the Berks. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/01/messy-mid-week-possible-following.html

I mean for a stretch mid month...not the whole season.

That is what I predicted for January....we'll see. I liked 1966, 1987 and 2003 in terms of snowfall distribution. 1966 best match meteorologically speaking.

I think they will....it's like 2007-2008 in terms of sensible weather, but different metoorologically....back then it was very -EPO and +NAO/AO, whereas this time it's -NAO/AO and -PNA.

I never lost power in April 1997...suprised.

Yea, it sucks we are contending with that huge trough out west, but it was always clear there would be some that this year.

I'm not shitting on you.....I just knew I was toast. Like you know your climo down on the s shore....same for me up here.

Look how next week's inside runner augments that huge NAO block via wave breaking and poleward heat flux...that is going to put up one hell of a fight mid month against what will be a very hostile tropics....could be a 2007-2008 like stretch far enough north.

Don't be fooled....it's taking a circuitous route to get there due to the residual cool ENSO GLAAM that continues to offer resistance at times, but this winter is going to offer some downright violent potential once things evolve later this month and into early February. I am not one for hyperbole at this stage of my life, but there just isn't any other way to articulate what I am envisioning.

I feel the same what that I did in August. Confident.

I knew by about 9am...scooter tried getting me to hallucinate hope into existence, but I was like "no way". I went to bed and slept from like 10am to 4pm....woke up....looked out the window and didn't regret it for a moment. That was neck and neck with 12/05/03 as the largest disappointment for me...but I still give the edge to 2003 because that was more of a mesoscale pork-job.

I wouldn't be at all shocked to see a February 2010 Snowmageddon repeated somewhere.

It's going to be an uphill battle next week with that deep trough amplifying out west.....probably a front end 2-5" over the interior is a reasonable goal.....and it will get mild mid month as the MJO goes through the MC....but once that circles back around to the favorable phases after about the 20th and the PV begins drifting back eastward, there is going to be some absolutely astronomical potential. A guy I chat with online was mentioning the late January 1978 evolution with that OV inside runner and I can see it. This is going to be one hell of a ride.

Well, that wasn't a large leap of faith

I'm finally to the point where I have enough experience that I really only lose it in the huge events.... I think the last one that broke me was the January 2022 Flizzard.

I could see this coming with that bonkers 12z run.....people are going to have unrealistic expectations. Take 6" of snow and sprint with this system.

Does it really matter if the PV splits, anyway? Maybe a wind reversal would make it tougher to recover, but other than that.....who cares? I mean, don't get me wrong....I would rather get the reversal, but I don't think its crucial.

How far was that from you and how much did you get?

Its terrible...being called an imbecile just because the football players gave pope a wedgie on prom night.

Seems like in forever since we have gotten away with one of those periods a la 2007.