40/70 Benchmark

Yes...Chris can hold me to this. The early 2030s are a very imporant test for me.

120 hours.....capitulation was Saturday. Saturday AM everyone woke up naked in a hot tub with their laptops in hand....by Sunday AM they were all lying tits up.

Stare at his laptop and post images of 2/28 on X.

Yes, valid point.

Yes and no....can you look me in my virtual eyes and tell me the aggresssive northern stream isn't wreaking havoc with models in the medium range this year?? 48 hours if probably hyperbole, but flip it....84 hours is not. I blogged on Friday night that tomorrow would not be a big deal....guidance was converging on a NE blizzard at that time....then Saturday...POOF.

I the crux of the issue is that while many of your claims likely have at least some validity, most view it has natural variability and that should be the baseline assumption for now. I know you ultimately assert that you are open to new information moving forward and are not resigned to this being permanent, but I think this issue is that your tone seems to suggest that your baseline assumption is that it will be permanent moving forward. Maybe I am off base, but that is how it comes across to me.

You are preaching to the choir....I'm in your camp, however, its obviously going to begin impacting NYC snowfall before it is mine. I don't think Don (I know I am not) is convinced that NYC is alreading being impacted, either....he was simply entertaining the possibility that NYC is in the early stages.

I think part of the disconnect between us is due to the difference in perspective given our locales. This is simply regression to the mean for me, as evidenced by the 60" average since 2015, though that looks to drop after this season. See Don's point regarding NYC potentially being in the early stages of decline, but not yet Boston...I'm on the NH border.

It probably won't end up a ratter....probably in the 2009-2010 camp....below average snowfall and immensely frustrating.

If we were talking a Dec 2007 stretch, then I would consider it....but 14" isn't worth it. I'll take a 30"er that begins melting after it falls.

Big one that melts...like last year.

1 more warning even would safely take it out of ratter territory and place into merely the "shitty" destination.

Well- I have 50% of average...do the math.

Better, still not great..I'd like it bit further east, but at least its not leaning positively and it extends up to higher latitudes into the AO domain...as you said. Now lets see how reality plays out

Hopefully the orientation and positioning of the ridge out west changes.

Honestly maybe next year.

Something will happen. You'll waste another 8 days staring at the laptop while drug lords overtake the city.

I must have 3.75" of water

I'm right between that 10 and 18", so the 14.5" here jives.

Another late season se US snow threat?

Ridge in the same dysfunctional position out west that it has been all season.

I'm just gonna keep on driving with the window up and the tunes blaring-

Rereading and this line near the end is very fair. I see why you felt I mischaracterized your stance. I am at work and don't always read exhuastively. I would give it until past the early 2030s, through the solar min and anticipated Pacific phase change.

You also don't want it leaning to the NE like that. We are certainly experiencing CC, but we have also always experienced shitty patterns that have lasted for the better part of a decade....maybe Chris is 100% correct and CC is causing this, but all I am saying is that that shouldn't be assumed because we need more time. I have gone on record as saying if we get through the early 2030's and are still struggling like this, then I will buy it. Chris said he is open to more data in the future, well I am, too.

After my last couple of seasons, I savor any correct forecast. Sorry, last time.