Yes, they are heavily biased towards stock ENSO composites......and I know Chris called for the mismatch period, as did I, but I don't think anyone forecasted a +PNA and near normal temps in the seasonal mean....as impure as the PNA was at times being biased west and what not....
A mismatch period is one thing, but that just wasn't a warm winter per modern 1991-2020 climo
I do think this trend is noteworthy despite the continued cool ENSO favor to the hemisphere...which is why I posted it. Not to claim its going to necessarily be cold.