40/70 Benchmark

I mean, MEI last year peaked at -1, 2008 was also -1. I know we don't have access to the current MEI, but I really fail to see why it would be any higher than either of those seasons. Again, I think you are getting carried away with the significance of the -IOD, which as you have acknowledged on several occasions, was also significant in 2008.

@snowman19, it's a weak La Nina...nothing is supportive of anything stronger. Zero.. I agree that ultimately it will get close to the moderate threshold, but not right now.

MEI we don't have, but the RONI is identical. I agree it's probably a tic stronger, but it's rather insignificant. I think you are overstating that.

I post images on my blog and then copy and paste as a work around to this forum's limitations.

I will say, February 2008 was much higher amplitude in the MC, but not the case in the other months

Now, maybe the west warm pool changes that? We will have to see.

I'm glad that you clarified exactly what you were insinuating with these nebulous -IOD inferences. I am going to post my outlook either next weekend or more likely early the week of Nov 10th and will look into this a great deal since ENSO in and of itself is pretty clear. It seems like you are implying that this weak east-central based event will act like a Modoki event because of the -IOD? I don't have an issue with that in a vacuum, since other factors easily overwhelm the Modoki index when ENSO is weak, however, if you look back at 2008, which you have compared this -IOD event to on several occasions, that did not happen. And that event actually was a Modoki. It made it to phase 7 in December, all the way around in January and even kissed phase 8 again briefly in February before hitting phase 8 again at high amplitude in March.

December 1995 was pretty strong, too.

Yes, yes.

That is just an aside for me....certaintly not weighted much...regardless of the indication.

Webb?

I'm sure this was next on snowman's list of Webb tweets to embed

There's a newer saying: What gets clicks, Bastardi will remember.

+TNH.

I don't know about him, but that is Chris' explanation.

Yes, I do consider that...or have the past year or two. I should have said the west warm pool in addition to ENSO...but what I meant is I don't obsess over finding SST meps that are replica matches around the hemisphere.

Right, but probably a bit cooler.

It seems like intensification was reinvigorated when it began moving a bit more readily, so upwelling may have slowed the rate a bit for a spell.

Looks like Back River is the winner.

Well, the two aren't mutually exlusive.

One of the "best" areas that it could have hit in terms of population....west jog did us a small solid.

Yea, St Elizabeth's Parish will get wiped.

System is a wonderful casestudy in how to navigate internal processess in the healthiest way possible. Wow.

Very important point...personally, I feel folks get too carried away with SST maps because although somewhat of a feedback can develop to a degree, they are not the primary mechanism driving the pattern and are more of a reflection of it. I don't focus on that at all, aside from ENSO.