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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Lets get a pocket of fog over Weymouth
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Me neither.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    39
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I do, although sometimes I will reference a more anecdotal note such as a "triple dip la Nina" composite, etc....I remember I lead with that for the 2021-2022 season, but its by no means the basis of the forecast...that would be silly. Agreed. I include that more for just "$hits and giggles"....but I will refer back to it my seasonal work leads to a similar result.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Weaker ENSO is coldest because it affords more opportunity for a colder outcome due to the increased reliance on extra tropical forces, but they absolutely can be warm...its more of an issue of how UNLIKELY very strong ENSO regimes are to be cold.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, you have been west of the predominate storm track the past several years.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    1990-1991 wasn't even a cold winter.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not sure @bluewavewould agree...
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, my area has had a lot of bad luck even relative to the general drought.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I can fathom the higher terrain of the Worcester hills and Berkshires, up into NNE seeing an increase, but I think I am too far south/close to the coast. Hopefully I can break even with a more feast or famine distribution moving forward.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Eh...I think the increase is probably north of me, or at least further inland/elevated. I don't think my snowfall on the interior CP of northern Mass is going to go up verses the longer term climo. Maybe the increased moisture and warmer temps cancel out, as opposed to even further south along the CP....
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am open to the concept esstentially anywhere below the latitude of about Manchester, NH...however, from about Manchester points northward, they really haven't been struggling as much during this drought period. Its a viable possibility for CNE and SNE, but we clearly aren't there yet in NNE IMHO.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Entirely possible. Please don't mistake my tone for dismissiveness, as I am open to the idea, but just don't feel its a forgone conclusion yet. Of course that is more likely the further south one travels...
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree regarding the growing feast or famine distributuon of the snowfall, but at least at this latitude, talk to me in 7 years regarding the bolded.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Goes along with my wholistic approach of measuring ENSO intensity being indicative of weak La Nina.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I live on the NH border. Obviously its possible mean snowfall is in decline even at this latitude, but I need to see more data than a 7 year snow drought on the heels of the snowiest decade on record capped off with over 100" in 30 days.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Talk to me in 7 years.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    The vast majority have little knowledge of climo so their opinion is based entirely on anecodtal and subjective observations.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    My mean snowfall since 2015 has just now dropped below the longer term mean snowfall after this past season...just to put things into perspective regarding how bannanas 2014-2015 was.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, agreed.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely, which I was expecting usuing the 2008 analog.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I consider it a weak La Nina given I consider more than the technical 5 consecutive tri monthly period criteria.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not so sure one can assume a -PDO next winter...
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't know why anyone should read too much into the 7 year snow drought after that stretch that we just had the previous decade.....still looks like simple regression to me, regardless of the catalyst. If you want to surmise anything behond that, talk to me in another 7 years.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    CANSIPS did a good job last year.
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