40/70 Benchmark

I think its a blend...sure, some maybe CC, but I think more of that is a byproduct of the crap Pacific and just some poor luck, too.

Yep. Great point...an identical regime this season would evolve even more unfavorably for NE winter enthusiasts if the polar domain also behvaves similarly. However, it was very hostile that year and I suspect we will have a bit more of a blocking signature in the mean this year.

What really complicates matters is undersanding WHY the metrics are disjointed and how that will manifest itself into the hemispheric manifold on a seasonal scale. The latter is where I failed last season. The lower =colder rationalization is a reductive and archic way of conceptualizing it (not directed at you...theoretical).

I agree, just still grappling with the timing a bit....

Yea, I think a season like that is the ceiling....decent snowfall with low retention.

No question its going to be warm....the issue is whether or not it will be prohibitively warm again.

Sure, and sometimes it doesn't, which is probably why October isn't highly correlated to winter. BTW, I would gladly take a repeat of 2016, anyway....esstentially normal snowfall around here.

The largest weakness I see with certain seasonal forecasters time and time again is this "all or nothing" black vs white thought process. I can't emphsize enough how important nuanced thinking is.

Yea, we have been though this. You do you...1999 is a much better fit from a polar perspective. Different analogs have different stengths and weaknesses.

1999-2000 is one of the better analogs. I think this pattern would have been warmer relative to normal for the northeast during the winter due to wavelengths. Thankfully, October doesn't have much of a coorelation to winter.

I think the much more palpable impact for us is the greater dichotomy between the favorable and unfavorable regimes.....we have seen that over the course of the past decade and that should continue. The warmer oceans are going to allow us to avail of ample moisture when we get stuck in one of these favorable regimes, like 2014-2015 and to a lesser extent March 2018, but we no longer have the margin for error to get away with a hostile mutltidecadal Pacific cycle, as we have seen the past several years. I expect the time around the turn of the decade to be another bonanza, but hopefully we can at least get back to respectability in the mean time.

Yea, this is why I am not as concerend about snowfall plummeting due to CC as some others....the vast majority of the warming manifests during times of RAD cooling, when it is less impactful on snowfall. Obviously it is having some impact and will eventually have more impact due to the warming oceans, etc, but I don't think we are going to see this doomsday scenario where mean annual snowfall nosedives....at least not at this latitude during our lifetimes.

La Nina should be peaking on the weeklies here within the next few weeks, regardless...probably at about 1.1 or 1.2. I think bursts like this could potentially start a longer term shift, which is long overdue, however, it won't matter for this season. I agree with you there.

I have started doubling up on more recent seasons on this year's seasonal temp anomaly composite forecast just in an effort to account for CC.

Defintely a warmer winter forecast. I don't think anyone was buying a normal winter tempwise down into the mid atl. I am comforted by the fact that it still has the wamrst anomalies in the SW...so qualitatively speaking its pretty similar. It was just too cold.

I don't expect something like January 2011 or March 2018, but I continue to consider Jan-Feb 2021 and Jan 2022 as most definitely within the realm of possibility.

Comparable 2021, which also had a very good stretch in January 2022.

Those are all decent analogs.

Even here...I haven't sniffed normal snowfall since 2017-2018.

Yea, I just want to see high amplitude MC phases this month...I really don't care about the weather itself.

That wasn't my point. ..I am referring to the amplitude of the MC MJO later this month as an indicator for winter.

Something to keep an eye on over the final third of October @bluewave..

Sure, but it also was last year at times during an El Nino and has been for the better part of 9 years.

BTW, I know some in here are expecting the updated AS MEI to spike way up because of how powerful of a La Nina regime we have been in this year, but I don't think that is the case. Its not La Nina doing that...its the west PAC warm pool mimicking a potent La Nina, but the AS MEI is probably going to come in at like -0.9 due to the SOI.

I really don't agree that a pro is automatically a better seasonal forecaster. I think the best are those that allocate the most time to it. ..which includes a lot of amateurs. Its not really something you can learn in a text book...seasonal forecasting is a unique skill that represents the nexus of science and art.