40/70 Benchmark

As we have seen over the course of the past several years, Pacific drives the bus for the most part....get a few periods of some poleward Aleutian ridging and we'll have some chances. I'm sure someone will beat me over the head with images of marine heat waves and piss in the cheerios to make a warm pool...but it is what it is. Things don't have to look orgasmic on a grander scale to catch a few stochastic breaks.

What it will do is promote more dreadful humidity.

I had 34.25"...largely due to lucking out Jan 7.

Not what I said.

Here is the correct composite for the older high ACE seasons...note that poleward Aleutian ridge.

Sorry about that.....sometimes I forget which is which. My mistake. I wish those were homeogeneous in that respect.

Another reason to expect a good winter around the turn of the decade, in addtion to solar min....

Correct...my bad. I thought that looked more holstile than I was expecting. Here is 2020-2021. Looks like the composite of the older high ACE seasons.

I don't think anyone implied that the ACE from Bery in and of itself will in fact impact the winter.

Totally fair to be skeptical of 200+ ACE....don't blame anyone for that.

Well, I think anytime you accumulate an ACE north of 200 there is going to be an inherently high number of recurves...we aren't going to get 30 landfalling systems.

Looks like we get some relief late next week.

Well, perhaps injecting an exceedingly anamalous level of tropical energy into the mid and higher latitudes wll help facilitate such a mismatch, since it very well may have in the past.

Yep.......2020 looks like a @bluewaveCC adjusted version of the older high ACE analog seasons. I think a year like that is doable, as 2020 was already high on my list.

Fell free to beat me senseless with a pillow full of s, but here is a composite of the updated CSU ACE forecast analog seasons...minus 2020, which isn't included on the older data set. Here is 2020: I think a 2020 like season is a reasonable hope for this season.

I think December would be decent for once...

Exactly the scenario that could save the northeast in an otherwise awful seasonal pattern...pretty much what happened on 2007-2008.

I don't think the warmth will be centered in the N plains again next season. I can buy the warmth, but don't necessari;ly agree with the orientation of it.

DT has grown so reductive and archaic in his seasonal analysis. Nevermind that it will assuredly be a La Nina by ONI standards, the cool ENSO Walker Cell will be very potent, regardless of the ONI. I'm not sure how that is lost on him. We all miss the boat sometimes....lord knows you have all seen it happened to me, but the key is to grow from it.

Euro tempts me to quit weather.

Yea, we won't know officially for a few months, I suspect.

Pretty satisfied with my call...I think being an hour too slow with landfall at Matagorda cost me that 15 MPH between forecast landfall intensity and actual. Hurricane Beryl Well Forecast Overall Landfall Locale Perfectly Predicted While Intensity Slightly Overestimated The Eastern Mass Weather Final Call for Hurricane Beryl was for a landfall in Matagorda, TX at approximately 6 AM EDT Monday as a category one hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 95 MPH. Beryl made landfall in Matagorda, TX at 5 AM EDT as a category one hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 80 MPH and a minimum central pressure of 979 MB. Obviously the forecast landfall location was perfect, as it made landfall at Matagorda one hour ahead of schedule. However, the landfall intensity left a bit to be desired, as it ended up being too aggressive at 95 MPH maximum sustained winds as opposed to the landfall intensity of 80 MPH. This is due to the fact that it simply did not have quite as much time to work the dry air out of the circulation as anticipated. Thus while the general forecast philosophy that Beryl would remain a minimal hurricane due to this environmental limitation was correct overall, the fact that it moved slightly faster than anticipated likely made the difference between the 80 and 95 MPH landfall intensity respectively since it had begun intensifying rapidly at landfall. Timing is everything with a rapidly intensifying system- Final Grade: A-

Keep in mind, I also stated in my forecast that damage may be more on par with cat 2 given the intensification through LF...quite a storm.