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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think we would need the ONI on the positive side of neutral given the base state of the extra tropical Pacific....either way, I agree it doesn't look great for NE winter. "Best case" in terms of ENSO maybe a cold-neutral ONI....
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably will.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    The ceiling in terms of impact is Edouard
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have zero-interest in that.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just some sprinkles on the way into work.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, with the RONI it would still be weak Nina even if ONI remained neutral, which I doubt.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its like saying we're due for some MC continent forcing.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    How do you figure? The vast majority of DM seasons have been averaging positive, including last season...unless you mean exceedingly positive...
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    We are getting La Niña.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    That guy is an enormous toolbag and is the embodiment of what social media has done to online meteorologists. The desire to increase traffic has corrupted the very products that they attempt draw in folks to view....everything is dramatic hype. Same thing that JB fell prey to.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Below is the reason why. The reason I whiffed last season is because I misinterpreted the impications of el nino being partially negated by the west PAC....I concepotualized it as simply a weaker El Nino, which is more favorable for winter....but what actually was taking place was the West Pacific competing and largely overpowering the El Nino.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    It doesn't matter if the ONI remains weak, the La Nina Walker cell will still be at least moderately intense for the same reason that we saw the continuation of the cool ENSO regime during an onstensibly powerful el Nino last year....the west Pacific warmth.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Completely agree.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    What a weenie orgie this thread is Sickos...
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree...two completely different hemispheric landscapes.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    The only aspect of 1995 that has value is using it as an ONI analog, but that doesn't mean very much in the grad scheme of things.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't see that happening...very lucrative and powerful industry. Rates would hike even more, sure.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I can't for the life of me figure out why snowman is still 5 PPD....and I honestly mean that. Sure, he has somewhat of a bias, but I think most of us with a pulse do. He brings alot to the table....well, as much as the 5PPD limitation permits, anyway.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I could see a toned down version of that winter, but as Brooklyn just pointed out, the extra tropical Pacific should be more hostile this go around.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    We should know in about 7-9 years.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    If we get DM -WPO/-EPO and modestly to moderately DM +NAO and -PNA with volatility, I bet many would be content.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I could totally see us salvaging winter due to the EPO/WPO....and considering the NAO + will average, that would probably entail some decent PNA flexes per your work. And I don't mean 2014 or 1995 when I say "salvage".... I think from about my area near the NH border and up could do well in that scenario, but points south would probably be limited by the EPO...maybe a 2007-2008 like gradient? Qualitative comp, not quanitative.....I don't expect 140" in Concord, NH.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes. He hasn't predicted a -WPO winter....just implied that its very possible.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    And I hope no one interprets this as me questioning CC because I'm not....just referring to the larger scale shift that has porked the east relative to the western CONUS that some are attributing to CC. We could also see a bit of a drop off from the uber heat due to natural cycles/variation and still be realizing CC.
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