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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Man, this would feel like 1976-1977 after the past 10 years.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not what I said....."flipping" implies that the +AMO period has peaked and is beginning to reverse. Once you have your mind made up, I think it distorts your interpretation of what people are trying to say. Its something everyone needs to be mindful of.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I def. see some pathways to redemption for the NE...admittedly a taller task for the Mid Atl, unless they hit the synoptic powerball with a big dog.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    No one in their right mind is going to argue that it looks good on paper.....I'm just saying to keep an open mind. Raindance was also speculating that the AMO maybe flipping, so be careful about assuming that "++AMO"..... One you make up your mind, focus on ways things can "go wrong"....
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    The only ugly month I see on the CANSIPS is January....reloads for Feb and March after a nice December. But even January doesn't lose the Poleward SAleutian ridging, so while shitty in the mean, I bet that is still a nice week mixed in there.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    TBH, I think that CANSIPS weenie image would get the gradient a bit further south than 2007...
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Gotta be honest....I like this.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think there is any question it finishes above normal...just a matter of whether it makes a run at 200 or not...
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    You really need to change your name from Bluewave to Dreamcrusher lol
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Love the full transparency.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Part of me thinks everyone is going to call for a rinse & repeat outlook of the past few years, only to miss something and it ends up decent.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I saw that....nice.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would love to deal with that.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    PDO should start to flip late this decade.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Cosgrove has started touting 2007-2008.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    During severe season, LBABSNE
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right....I said "run-of-the-mill ABOVE AVERAGE season....take it from 85" or so to like 58", which is a nice season but nothing too out of the ordinary.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    It doesn't amaze me...the currents are totally different...same reason why CA doesn't hey canes and the Carolinas do.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, but Beryl does.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think 2013 was high solar, as well...obviously the Pacific was much different, but underscores the point that you can't become over reliant on any one indicator with respect to seasonal forecasting.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think there was more to the meager 2001 season than just the high solar...1970 was also high solar, so it's not an automatic "game over ". A vortex stationed over AK in the seasonal mean is.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I highly doubt it doesn't reach weak Nina status, but we'll see...guidance has been trending that way. Good news is that the cool ENSO Walker Cell should not be as potent as it was during the 2022-2023 season, so if we get a similar set up, the east coast could cash in a bit more.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    And this really has nothing to do with winter, Scott...I'm not going big winter, regardless of what the ACE looks like. TBH, one of the best analogs was a high ACE, mild winter. If you look at most of the snowy, high ACE seasons, they were near solar min, so there are other factors at play here.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree and I'm not, either...especially the snowless part.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    The one metric is what it is....I mean, take the blizzard if '78 out of '77-'78 and it was just a run-of-the-mill above average snowfall season. It doesn't matter that it is one storm...it was a cat 5 over multiple days in early July, which is a tremendously anomalous testament to the ingredients at play this season.
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