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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    We should know in about 7-9 years.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    If we get DM -WPO/-EPO and modestly to moderately DM +NAO and -PNA with volatility, I bet many would be content.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I could totally see us salvaging winter due to the EPO/WPO....and considering the NAO + will average, that would probably entail some decent PNA flexes per your work. And I don't mean 2014 or 1995 when I say "salvage".... I think from about my area near the NH border and up could do well in that scenario, but points south would probably be limited by the EPO...maybe a 2007-2008 like gradient? Qualitative comp, not quanitative.....I don't expect 140" in Concord, NH.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes. He hasn't predicted a -WPO winter....just implied that its very possible.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    And I hope no one interprets this as me questioning CC because I'm not....just referring to the larger scale shift that has porked the east relative to the western CONUS that some are attributing to CC. We could also see a bit of a drop off from the uber heat due to natural cycles/variation and still be realizing CC.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    This makes sense to me because while I do not feel that the NAO will be wall-to-wall positive, I think that it will be the Pacific side that is the primary driver if this coming winter is to be saved in the aggregate. I know raindance has been harping on a -WPO, which would also align with this...especially if we crank that ACE.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    This all goes hand-in-hand with my theory of how if we are still going scorched earth and pointing fingers at whomever may have stolen our snow by 2030, then its time to seriously consider that a larger percentage of this is indeed permanent and not cyclical in nature. AMO flip, PDO flip, solar min, wake of strong multiyear Nina and strong La Nina.....lots of reasons for change between now and the end of the decade.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is nuts....I am at like 20 this summer, with nearly 10 89's....
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I figured...just clarifying so no one thinks I am trying to steal their climate change.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree. The initial comment was in response to one regarding yesterday.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Total agreement and said the same thing in my blog post yesterday. However, I believe the true intensity of this particular La Nina event will be a healthy moderate and perhaps even nearing strong. The inverse of last year's El Nino.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not claiming anyone did...I just refer to fraud-torches as those in which the vast majority of the + anomaly is in the day time min.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was only speaking to yesterday. This summer has seemed hot to me.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Classic CC fueled fraud-torch.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Historically speaking, weak El Nino has been the wheelhouse for SNE and moderate for the mid atlantic because they require more of a STJ influence.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    The first two were weak.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Something has to work out sooner rather than later for the NE.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nothing is a silver bullet, but the RONI is another tool that has some utility when used in the proper context.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Quick update on the developing La Niña. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/07/enso-proving-deceptive-once-again.html
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think you will appreciate the piece that I just finished...will lost later after proof read, etc.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Why are you focusing on the upper portion of that range? Hell, I had 42" in 1998-1999....and that was whiffing on a blizzard that skirted the cape.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    My area got screwed in 2020-2021, as I missed out on some of the heavier snows just south of me..kind of caught in between, which is why I have now endured six consecutive below average snowfall seasons.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    More than one way to skin a weenie.... if we get that MJO amplitude in October, then we can probably get some nice polward Aleutian ridging episodes and pv elongation.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, @ORH_wxmanhas been saying that. Personally, I will take this.....foster a greter proclivity towards delayed meteorological gratification to be satiated by a big pay day every so often. Makes the hobby more enjoyable IMHO.
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