40/70 Benchmark

That was expected. I said in the outlook that the western flank shouldn't cool too much more..

I am reminded of why I haven't ventured into OT in about 10 years...even for sports.

Obviously, but that isn't the point. It should not be that way, but it is. And it exacerbates the issue due to the resultant reluctance to get back to work. Its a travesty that the inequality of the income distribution is so severe, but it is.

That isn't the case with the majority...obviously, the vast majority of people made less staying home.

Cool. I never entered that thread...maybe once or twice of like literally 10 seconds.

I'll give it a rest. I have never engaged in this before, as I usually do not venture into banter threads. Sorry if I was beating a dead covid cell.

Right. Its just not worth it to go back to work, so they protract the befits as long as possible, which fosters dependency.

Even during the first shutdown....there were people making more than they did when they worked. That is a fact and a problematic one at that.

I agree 100%. I realize that I will get bashed for this, but if it comes down to needing to destroy the economy in order to save the most vulnerable, then I think I would rather see a survival of the fittest and most mindful element come into play.

Let me clarify....if you want to argue that the US opened too soon, I'm not sure that I would disagree. But I think closing the economy again for over a month would do more harm than good. I get it...my own mother is vulnerable, but I can't justify risking a depression when she can just remain quarantined, which she essentially has done. Not to mention the psychological impact on people....especially children, since the whole educational institution is such a catalyst for social development.

So sorry, guys.

Lot's of people aren't okay with ruining the economy due to a .01% mortality rate. The vulnerable should quarantine.

Please excuse my ignorance, but what is FIL?

Despite losing climo, I feel like you have more margin for error with respect to scoring in an unfavorable pattern in March due to the changing wavelengths. All it takes is one well placed bowling ball....

I think the one great storm is more of an el nino phenomenon.

Was you primary analog 2007 or 1975?

Great work, as usual. We are largely in agreement, but differ a bit on how we arrive there. We agree that the seasonal PNA will be near neutral or even positive in the mean, but I favor PNA more in the second half. You also favor the most wintry period in January, and I am more December. I would not be surprised if you have the better idea there, as I was torn on whether to favor Dec 15 to Jan 15, but ended up highlighting December, while acknowledging that the favorable pattern could linger into January. Caveat being that you aren't that hostile for SNE in December....we both agree that the mid atl will struggle early. February will be terrible. Agreed. I mentioned some hope for March, but it is low confidence and did not bake in into the snowfall forecast.

And that one screwed NE. The Jan 2015 event porked the mid atl.....you have to go back to Feb 2013 to get one that nailed the mid atl to NE.

It was warm-neutral....not far off.

I don't know about literal "record" warmth for the season, but the rest of that is essentially my winter forecast. I think I would favor February for actual record warmth.

I would take 2016-2017 and run. I had that as a secondary analog.

Peak snow climo is such for a reason...its near the coldest time of the year, and thus positive temp anomalies are not as prohibitive to snowfall. Throw in an active first and last third, and bang....climo seasonal snowfall. Retention is another story....well below normal.

I know....been 15 years for me! I was 25 Our outlooks seem pretty similar, though you are a bit colder.

I should have posted that in here, too. Thanks.