40/70 Benchmark

I only used it as a secondary analog because of the ONI and MEI criteria that I employed, but that season is one of the better sensible weather analogs for how I see this winter playing out. Even the blocking just east of Greenland was a very prevalent feature in my composite.

Do you mean due to the stagnation of a neg NAO...IE, not allowing the old Pac puke to bleed out?

Right....I think climo and the cold reservoir improve throughout the month.

I think "the first half of December shows signs of improvement" is more accurate.

I don't think that you will be too far off this season. I think I went with + .25 to .55 range...basically neutral-positive. I think most would take a near neutral NAO and run, this year. lol

Most bombed the arctic last season....I think all of the smoke from the fires really augmented the PV.

Early signs are that that the PNA may begin the month a bit more favorable than expected.. There is also some support for perhaps some subtle disruptions of the PV during the month, which would be congruent with what was expected during the month of December. I do not expect the early month PNA to bare much if any fruit for the coast, as climo is relatively hostile and Canada is still largely void of cold. After about the 10th. cold reservoir be more replenished and climo will be less adversarial. I like the chances for a white xmas across a lot of the region....especially pike points north and outside of rt 128. December 2020 Outlook The polar vortex is likely going to begin the season quite consolidated near the pole during the month of November. However, the polar domain should become slightly less hostile to the development of periodic higher heights during the month of December, which may bring the AO and NAO closer to neutral, as dictated by previously referenced la nina climatology. This is when the more canonical, eastern pacific la nina regime will try to flex its muscle. Note the Aleutian high displaced to the northwest, and protruding poleward. The greatest positive height anomalies will likely be biased over the Aleutians, and to the east of Greenland, perhaps similar to the Ural blocking of October. This does not mean to imply excessive blocking for the period, which is not constituted by higher Ural heights, but more likely at least some transient periods of positive heights at higher latitudes. Alaska should also predominately feature some higher heights, especially across the western portion. There should be continuous RNA, so there is warmer bust potential should the vortex remain more consolidated than forecast. December Forecast H5 Composite: December Forecast Temperature Composite: There has only been one winter (DM) month, March 2018, that has averaged a negative NAO since February and March 2013. It is postulated that there is a high likelihood that we will add to that list this season. Most likely in December, but possibly March or even both. The month of December should average 1-2 degrees below normal for northern New England, near normal to a degree above normal for central southern New England, and 1-2 degrees above normal from north to south near New York City points southward into the mid atlantic. Cold will dump over the high plains and bleed eastward. December Forecast Precipitation Composite: It should be an active period marked by above average precipitation, especially for points north of Washington, DC. Primary modes of cyclogenesis include Alberta clippers, southwest flow events, and Miller B redevelopers, the latter of which especially prevalent during periods of negative NAO. New England should be favored for snowfall, especially central and northern parts of the region. The mid atlantic will need breaks in the RNA to coincide with negative NAO flex for significant snowfall, which is not exceedingly likely, but possible. A White Christmas is more probably than climatology would suggest this season. While the month is likely to average a negative NAO in the mean, this is not meant to imply that excessive blocking will reside for the entirety of the month.

I don't really concern myself with summer outlooks. True RE 2005-2006 wastedMarch potential. I actually used the 2005-2006 analog for the 2017-2018 season, citing the forecasted bookend nature of the winter, with an exotically mild stretch in between. Both were ep la nina seasons. Difference is we capitalized on the March potential in 2018. I don't think 1975-1976 is a bad sensible weather analog, but it did not meet my analog criteria.

I would give more weight to a modified Dec 1970, but 1999-2000 the rest of the way. 2005-2006 was actually very east based....not mixed type. Nina much weaker...it actually had more going for it leading in. ACE was of course off the charts. Not sure why it was so mild...solar?

2/4 of my mixed la nina composite. 1970, 1999, 2007 and 2010. I incorporated 2010 very little for various reasons. 2007 is best.

ACE is up to 180....I think @raindancewx said 175 was the breaking point for snowier outcomes in the NE, but since they name every pop up shower today, maybe 170 is a more accurate assessment of this season's activity. Close.

Pretty affordable split 15-20 ways.... #familygofundmeonturkeyday

Let them....I don't give a shit. My side of the family is paranoid about the virus, so the usual gtg at my sister's is off. I think we are just having my wife's side over at our place. You dry hump one another in a political orgy following the election, but god forbid you break bread at your own damn dinner table. If it comes to it, I'd rather pay the fine and tell them to eat shit, then be controlled like that.

I haven't, either.

I was just having this conversation with a coworker this morning. How do we distinguish between who has, and had not had the vaccine? People are just going to begin claiming that they had it when pestered about a mask. I feel as though it will just continue to be mandated for a good year after the vaccine is released, which will increase the tension because people who get the vaccine, like myself, will be irritated.

Slap a mask on the piggie and ride it out the pole!

Nothing speaks to the stout PV more than the incessant covid talk. Gonna be a while-

Not the type of el nino winter fans would want either, should that structure maintain itself through next fall.

Right....Iota is in the Caribbean. Limiting factor will be central america...again.

Plenty of yard work in Methuen....gotta start the leaves this wknd.

I would be happy with either of those.

The ACE should take a another jump with IOTA, which may get pretty strong.

Yes, but the issue was those who were staying home after they had the option to going back.

I would also disagree with the notion that we are a country of people who would engage in such behavior, which is why I specified that those people are in the minority, but there were some.