40/70 Benchmark

Like I just said in mid atl forum, it was difficult for me to communicate the potential of the second half, while concomitantly conveying that it was lower confidence due to the reliance upon the onset of blocking. I am more confident in the PNA period. I feel at least some blocking materializes second half....but it will suck if it doesn't. Should be some NAO in Dec, too, but transient.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/11/winter-2019-2020-modified-modoki.html City Predicted Snowfall Actual Forecast Error Boston, MA 45-55” ? ? New York, NY 20-30" ? ? Philadelphia, PA 17-27" ? ? Baltimore, MD 15-25” ? ? Washington, DC 15-25” ? ? Albany, NY 65-75” ? ? Hartford, CT 50-60” ? ? Providence, RI 40-50” ? ? Worcester, MA 70-80” ? ? Tolland, CT 60-70" ? ? Methuen, MA 65-75” ? ? Hyannis, MA 20-30” ? ? Burlington, VT 80-90" ? ? Portland, ME 70-80” ? ? Concord, NH 65-75” ? ? Index Value Predicted '19-'20 DM Value Range Actual '19-'20 DM Value Forecast Error Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) 0 to .30 ? ? Perennial North American Pattern (PNA) .15 to .45 ? ? ENSO Weak Modoki El Nino (0.3 to 0.5C ONI) (NDJ) 0.5C NDJ ONI .50 Modoki ? (J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) -.15 to -.45 ? ? Arctic Oscillation (AO) 0 to -.30 ? ? North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) -.15 to .15 ? ?

I wasn't suprised at all.

@raindancewx Thanks alot for the awesome data updates....very much appreciated. Tough to keep up as much this fall with a newborn. I remember looking at how paltry the ECMWF was with the ENSO peak last year and Isummarily dismissed it, which I seldom do. I was waiting to include it in my last blog update, but ended up leaving it out. Lol

He just means relative to fall sensible weather.

Shift last season a bit se, and it would have been good. It has incorrectly gotten associated with some pretty awful seasons by people staring at the KBOS seasonal total on an excel file....but it really was not like those years. Don't get me wrong..consensus forecast of banner year bombed, but it was not an awful pattern...more a serviceable pattern during which southern New England was snake bitten.

February 2007, 1995 and 2010 are all patterns that I would take another roll of the dice with, though.

I'd keep an eye on the MEI....it was +.30 as of AS value. SO should be higher.

Don't completely agree...

I def. agree with the translation eastward of the developing el nino...much like last year. That is that main difference between this season and 2014..el nino is developing a bit later and is working from west to east, whereas that year it was east to west. Otherwise, 2014 is a good ENSO analog.

2004 and 1976 were pretty epic in SNE, too. I would agree that this isn't a clear-cut blockbuster season, though.

No one is calling for a snowmageddon in New England, but I don't see any awful signs is the point.

Thanks for the great info, raindance, as always. 2004 and 2014 are two modokis I do not mind mirroring.

Care to elaborate? Are you implying that the ocean and atmosphere are poorly coupled like last year?

Great job. Although last winter was actually pretty snowy across NNE.

Raindance, I have garnered alot of respect for your methodology over the past year, but I'm a bit confounded as to how you interpret a weak el nino as an unfavorable development for NE winter. I get that you weigh solar very heavily, but betting against NE winter in a weak modoki el nino, if that does indeed materialize, is a risky proposition. We'll see...maybe you will nail it. You certainly know your stuff. Anyway, four of the six seasons that you mentioned featured above average snowfall in Boston...of course, 1994 and 2018 were awful. 2007 was epic in CNE and NNE. 2004 was epic in the Boston area, 2009 epic in mid atl. 1994 is actually good ENSO match, but its going to fall out of favor if the eastern ENSO regions don't spike a great deal this month.

Yea, I never understood why some were dismissing chances for weak el nino with region 4 being so warm.

Yea, bares watching....I have not written el nino off. And the modoki rating can change swiftly, as we saw last year.

Its probably not going to be an el nino at all, but the surface and subsurface warmth is definitely biased west.

2012 ended up being a fine winter out here.

I'm not opposed to a relatively mild December and I still definitely favor a warm-neutral ENSO. My point was I don't think the ship has entirely sailed on a marginal el nino. As far as the sst anomalies go, a +.55C in 1950 is means the same thing in 2019...sure, overall temps are warming, but anomalies are relative.

3 of your 6 best ENSO matches went on to become el nino events. Interesting that you link mild Decembers in east to warm region 4. When region 4 is above +0.5c in latter September as it was this season, the odds are very high for el nino since 1990. I listed the data set in my blog. Full of strong Ninos, and weak ones that were cold in the east, save for 1994.

1969-70 has been high on my list all fall.

Some thoughts I had on ENSO....looks modoki to me at the moment....but last season is fresh in my mind. Very open to alternative lines of thinking. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/10/enso-update-pathway-remains-for-modest.html Of course, the elephant in the room is that the most likely outcome is probably neutral, but I am not ready to discount the shot of a last moment, meager el nino.

Why do you think that would be terrible for the west? Volatile NAO should yield a stormy look.