40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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The parent low to the north is from the original energy, but the NAO block, 50/50 low forces the energy to transfer to the south. The GFS does it late in the game for us, so you see the closed H5 low still waaaay north, as the surface tries to get going south of NE.....if you loop the run, they will eventually stack out near the maratimes. We want that to happens faster to the south of LI.
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This looks like a pattern of energy dumping west due to the RNA, the the NAO block forcing coastal redevelopment. Should be more favorable the further NE one is....late bloomer. GFS looks like more SWFE because they don't get going soon enough, but not important, right now.
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GFS needs significant adjustments with the 1/23 event to be a big deal for SNE...which doesn't matter at this range, I know.
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I feel like the EURO is a lot more intriguing for that 1/23 threat than the GFS and Canadian suites.
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Last night's GEM looked awful...yikes.
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I wish that N steam would be a little more aggressive....
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Like me in the fall. I would have checked for a while, but I have too much down time at work these days lol
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The redevelopment is in its infancy.....the surface low will show up south of NE over the next few frames.
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He did not explicitly say that...I just may have interpreted incorrectly. He did imply that the 1/23 system is unlikely to get up here....squashed by the huge 50/50.
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I don't know.....PD II was good here..I just got mesoporked. Same thing with Jan-Feb 1994. You think of any?
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I kind of got the impression looking at DT's video that he is favoring a great overrunning pattern for the SE and mid Atl, but not so much up this way.
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P Sunny in Chelsea
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Yup. Late 90s barely missed bc of April Fool's Blizzard.
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I will say that if we do end up with below normal snow this season, which I think is slightly greater than a 50/50 shot, then I will need pretty overwhelming evidence to not go above normal snow next season. My area has only posted four consecutive below average snowfall seasons once since 1956.
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I know....I would root against it if I were you provided that you were confident of a -EPO. Neg EPO/+NAO if your most prolific set up IMO....problem is that I don't think we will keep a neg EPO, so you may want to hope the blocking lingers like the rest of us and take your chances lol
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Its not perfect, but the most accurate representation.
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Luck is involved in everything.....sports included. Its one thing to acknowledge it, and another to use it as an excuse for a busted forecast.
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I think you have a better shot for that than SNE....just needs to be active. You can even pull that off without blocking.
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2015 and to a lesser extent, 2005 more recent examples....hell, Feb-March 2011 sucked......prior to Jan 12 2011, it was on par with this season.
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Regression.
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This, at least sensible weather wise, has been a like a modified January 2009 stretch....bit milder and drier, but very consistent stretch with no thaws. I think there is value in avoiding bonafide thaws over a protracted stretch at this latitude....but the lack of antecedent snow killed it. As Will noted, most of the best winters have these stretches.....following the blizz of 78, we had like a month of seasonable cold and dry before a minor March event.
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This is what I have been saying....you have to go back to 12/28 to find a high not between 33 and 41 IMBY. TBH, I would not have minded this stretch so much if we had a decent pack. The grinch ruined the first half.
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It seems that way, but Scott is right....nothing record breaking, but once that PAC jet settles down, there should eventually be some anomalous cold. I am not as pessimistic on February as I was when I wrote the outlook, mainly given the SSW.....but we will see. I was hedging towards a Feb 2018 type month, but kind of doubting that now.
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Most of it arriving on the streets of the higher terrain in central VT and NH. 0.0 interest in that.
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I would not be surprised.....definitely at least one
