Heisy

End of OP euro trended towards the Ai with delaying the wave. Would have been a vastly different solution vs its 12z run which was kind of on its own vs other guidance

Yea def, only thing I would take away is the delay in the shortwave vs the OPs, but this thing is still really far out.

I was focused on 95 SE hah

That would be painful, euro Ai and gfs Ai delay the wave so much we lose 50/50 influence. It almost cuts it off from the flow

NW Va beat down on the 18z euro Ai. That’s 10:1 too, wow

Just pointing this out. Been following both Ai models for days now. They’ve been locked in to this general progression for multiple runs now. Theres some minor differences each run of course, but two separate models 190+ hours out, remarkable similarities. Regardless of details, gotta wonder if the OPs will eventually end up with this look.

The cmc progression is likely the best hope for a snowstorm here. Like I mentioned in my last post it split off a lead wave which helped reinforce cold air before the main wave eventually came east. The 6z gfs wasn’t too far off from showing that as well. See gif below This is probably the best progression to root for.

I think this pattern is more volatile than normal. Dealing with -PNA pac energy. Every model handling it differently and you see the results from that happening. Last nights cmc split it in two and the lead wave helped reinforce HP behind it. AiGFS practically buries the wave. GFS brings it out, but the confluence is just a little bit too weak to lock in the cold air we need. I can go on and on. Sure, there’s a better chance of a non-snow outcome, but I have low confidence in any particular model solution attm.

Anyone see the 12z Ukie today? It snuck a wave under the tpv at 162-68 hours. Was a 6-10” event for us, but it ended at 168 so I wasn’t sure. Only reason I’m mentioning it is because the 18z gfs Ai now is focusing on that wave. There were also a bunch of eps Ai members blowing that wave up. Something to keep an eye on

12z cmc was a MECS in the making. Still at long range, just good to see

Just an op run. But this lead in actually looks pretty good, nice looking 50/50

It’s an ensemble mean, doesn’t guarantee anything, but the fact that it has that high of a mean signals an increased winter storm chance around 14-15th range

18z euro Ai has a cad event day 9-10

Wacky gfs run, has the WAA thump I mentioned and then redevelops a coastal somehow few days later on

Not the strongest HP up top but you can see how it’s forcing a secondary