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Scraff

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About Scraff

  • Birthday 03/23/1970

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KBWI
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Elkridge, MD
  • Interests
    Winter Storm Tracking, WV Mountaineers, Caps, Cowboys, Craft Beer, Fitness Training, and Varying Levels of Heavy F’ing Metal!

Recent Profile Visitors

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  1. Currently 29. About 1.5 measured here. Definitely was expecting a bit more, but @WxUSAFalready noted what happened in our neck of the woods. Either way, works for me! Looks beautiful out there.
  2. Woke up for this? Meh. Light snow. 33. Dusting at best. Back to sleep. Will see what 5am looks like.
  3. I’m honestly scared to F with 5mg. However, 4 double IPAs, no problem! Oh, and my apple app says chance of rain in 2 hours. OMG! What the!? This entire thread is a complete scam. I’m done tracking rainstorms. Or maybe it’s just my apple app that ate 150mg of @dailylurkerTHC. Oh. 37 degrees. Too lazy to look at DP. Just like my NAM map from this morning.
  4. Nice! I’ve actually been to Ship Bottom a few times over the years when visiting LBI. Good stuff there for sure. Cheers to snow!
  5. I was too lazy to zoom in. Looks like you are too.
  6. Morning peeps! So how much trust do we have in the 6z RGEM. Wow!
  7. Good morning everyone! NAM 12K for the win? Think most of us would be pretty happy with that NAMing
  8. I’m not buying anything for Sunday until the CRAS comes on board.
  9. Are you nuts!? Shhhhh!! Why are you trying to wake the sleeping giant?
  10. Hear that! At this point, I guess I’m just rooting for anything over 1”.
  11. Should we try and trade one in for the other? That always works out!
  12. Sending love, strength, and good energy to your wife. My wife / family walked a similar path last year, so if talking or leaning on someone helps at any point, always happy to chat.
  13. Nice write up by Justin Berk: “Is there a case to be made for snow next weekend? These are just notes of what I’m watching this week… Timing of upper level energy can be off by a day when looking a full week away. This past Friday event initially looked like an afternoon and night thing… but it ended up mostly in the morning…. And lingering into the next day with upper level support. My purpose here is the highlight that the modeling is NOT perfect. It’s all about timing and I subscribe to the fact this polar jet has features we are not seeing handled well on the models. Not seeing much snow now, could change if the alignment changes…. And it may from what I saw in the early morning plots. The chaotic atmosphere is imperfectly predicted farther out in time. 1. The big push of the Polar Vortex will arrive. 2. Temps Saturday afternoon likely to stay in the 20s to low 30s. Tracking ENERGY in the jet stream with Vorticity 5-7 days away is imperfect. Again, the timing can be off by a a few hours or a day, and that can make or break phasing - which is needed for a storm to form. 3. Vorticity Saturday morning from the EPS, which is an ensemble blend of global models. This brings the main vort max across Maryland and then just cold. 4. Vorticity Saturday morning on the European AI model looks similar, but more active. There is more energy in the pipeline. THEN… 5. Vorticity Sunday night brings the base of the polar jet across Maryland. Will it snow? 6. Saturday Afternoon ECMWF has a clipper to our north, with a chance for flurries while light snow in the mountains and to our north. The timing is off and not letting it phase. If this ends up a little south or the timing changes, I believe there’s a chance for more to develop. 7. Sunday afternoon the ECMWF AI model brings that wave in later and spins up as it hits the coast. 8. Sunday Night the GFS is later with the energy AND closest with the attempt to phase. Just seeing the variations next weekend show me there is a lot left to be understood. So expect the outlook to change. It’s NOT a promise that it will snow, but a pledge that next weekend’s weather will be cold, but the rest we don’t fully know. Faith in the Flakes”
  14. Just stepping back in here today and catching up. Been out test driving new AWD vehicles today. About to make a purchase in the next few days. Apparently, I need to get this done before next weekend? Of all things I read, the only thing retained was December 2009.
  15. And rabbits in Derwood running for their lives.
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