psuhoffman

Dude… every time I bring up an example where it’s getting harder to snow you argue. Then you drop this.

If 98 was slightly colder…there were several storms that were close. It did snow up here that winter. Not a ton but lots of storms were a mix up here that winter. 5 degrees colder and 2-3 of those big rainstorms would have been snow. That’s what we have to hope for. 98 the pacific trough was just a bit too far east and overwhelming. 66 was the outlier in the other direction.

I’ve seen a ton of stories lately from both men and women justifying walking out on marriage for no good reason (I am not engaging in the gender war crap, there are good men and women and bad men and women. Gender doesn’t make someone automatically anything imo). Men and women saying you don’t need abuse or infidelity to leave someone and it’s fine to leave a good person who treats you well if you just aren’t happy. Now I fully admit I’m weird and no one to comment on what’s normal but…WTF! Why get married if that’s your attitude? Do the vows mean nothing? If your partner is good to you and you made a commitment….shouldnt you work on yourself? Ask why you’re not happy despite someone who loves you who you married indicating hopefully you love them too? Do people think it’s up to someone else to make them happy? Or as a society have we decided marriage means nothing now and it’s just a cute ceremony we do? I don’t get it. If you just walk the first time you’re not feeling it why get married at all?

I am on this Maryland Politics Forum and one of the threads was all these guys complaining about how awful women were and the thread author said "who even knows what these b**** C**** want... to which I replied, maybe not to be called that. 3 different guys responded calling me a f**. Did young men decide they never want sex again? WTF happened. And no that forum is not usually this toxic and the thread has now been deleted by the moderator but...jeesh

Typically ninos are not good there. Warm winters. Southern storm track. Split flow. Not a lot of NS waves. But all it takes is one cold blast to get an epic event and I’m not am expect on lake effect but typically strong nino seasons are below avg snow for the lakes.

The Jaylen Daniels memes are funny right now though. Even in sports the BS bleeds in. If I read the comments under the eagles news you’d think they’re the Cleveland Browns. As someone who’s been a fan for over 40 years I’m like Y’all need some perspective. The last 10 years been to 3 super bowls and playoffs 9/10 times. This is as good as it gets and they talk like the team is garbage.

I liked TTPD but I get why it’s an acquired taste. If you’re not in the mood to be depressed that’s not the album for you.

That’s why I’m still there. Get eagles news before the papers and outlets. Easily follow weather accounts and soccer. The other crap bleeds into my feed.

I’ll admit I’m somewhat biased. Travis’s brothers summer place is a couple blocks from where my parents live. I’ve run into him many times over the years. He seems like a genuinely nice and fun guy. Also charitable. He does this bar event each year to raise money for autism which because of my own personal experience is important to me. I’ve never met his brother, just missed him once actually. But Jason talks about him like he’s a great guy and given the family I doubt he’s a jerk. When he started dating Taylor was before I listened to her at all but my opinion was “good for him, I hope they’re happy”. Silly me I didn’t realize I’m supposed to hate everyone who’s more successful than me. I’ll try harder.

But don’t most of those things apply to all pop stars? I mean yea she is MORE of all those things but to the normal person why does her being worth 2b v some other artist being worth 1.1b or 800m make a difference? The exposure thing is weird too because 90% of that is “our” fault. Most of her exposure is the press reporting on everything she does. Not her own doing. She rarely makes any posts or does interviews anymore. The press posts about her attending a game or at the beach or going to some event and that’s somehow her fault? I do her why people say they have a problem I just don’t understand the logic of it. It seems like it’s “I hate her because she is so successful”. As for the music that’s fine. I thought i didn’t like her. I still don’t like most of her radio hits. I’m not a big pop fan. Then I found out she did two whole albums of folk music which didn’t get much radio play and then found a ton of other songs I likes that are never on the radio. Oddly I like her less popular stuff.

Ok so I’ve become a Taylor Swift fan because of my daughter. Until recently I just never listened. I’m not much of a country fan so her early stuff wasn’t really my thing and never gave it a chance again until recently when I had to listen because my daughter is a swiftie. But I was shocked. I can listen to folklore and evermore all day no skips. All that to say I don’t understand something. The crazy amount of criticism I see and hear whenever she comes up. I am not saying people have to like her music. But when I thought I didn’t I never had a thing to say. If I did it was just “oh she seems like a nice girl just not my type of music”. Another example is I don’t like Drake. I tried. Just not my type of music. But I have never made a single post or comment about it. I don’t waste my time telling people he sucks. I just don’t listen. And I can admit from his sales and chart success that he is an amazing artist regardless of my personal preferences. So what is it about Taylor that creates this lightning rod where everyone who doesn’t like her music feels the need to make these nasty comments? She seems like a nice person. It’s odd to me.

I said it’s possible. It is. But all we have to go on is history. And that suggests the issue is likely to be temps. I don’t buy the models showing these long cold periods. They do that every Nino. The climate models seem to think every Nino is 2010. Dunno why. But they’ve been off several in a row. So I am not buying that. IMO the issue is it’s likely to be too warm to snow the majority in the winter. But we’re also likely to have a juiced up STJ. So the question is do we get enough cold windows to time up 1 of those juiced up 2” qpf waves? So the math becomes is it too warm 95% of the time and then a 1998 becomes likely. Or is it only 75% and then 1983 or 2016 is more likely. Somewhere in there it becomes more likely we do get lucky with at least one wave. And maybe we even get lucky with 2 but that falls in the same boom category just more boom. The bust is it’s too warm 90% of the time and we don’t time anything up and have very little snow. I am not arguing a twist can’t happen just that those are the most likely two scenarios. IMO maybe 40% boom, 40% bust, 20% some weird unforeseen outcome based on new climo. Just my 2 cents. I don’t have a crystal ball.

My social media feed seems to be littered with gender war crap, including people celebrating walking out on their spouse just because they weren't totally happy. It's not men or women, it's both... women proudly posting about how they left just because they felt bored or something "just wasn't right" and men bragging they left because their wife wasn't... well use your imagination here. WTF is going on? Forget the battle of the sexes crap, when did marriage vows become a total joke? I mean... there are legit reasons to leave a marriage. Abuse. And I include emotional abuse not just physical. But I don't ever remember the "until I get bored or you're not putting out enough" clause in the "until death do us part" portion of the wedding! Did I miss some major announcement where marriage vows were just a suggestion and no longer an actual commitment?

It's possible, but the history on super Nino's would imply the last likely outcome is that "in between" scenario. The key is going to be the exact location of two features. The North Pac low and the AO/NAO high/block. These two features showed up in almost all the analogs. But there is a balancing act on how they play off each other. The further east the Pac low is the worse it is for us. The further southwest the NAO/AO high is...for instance if it ends up centered over Quebec instead of truly in the NAO domain...the worse.. about half the super nino's that combo ended up toxic...the PAC low too far east blasting pac puke across the whole continent all winter...and the AO/NAO high too far southwest so that it didn't help block down even domestic cold from canada but instead just "blocked" the pac puke over the lower 48 all winter...and in those winters it was simply mild and wet all winter. The more favorable winters, that combo was more favorable, enough so that we were able to get some windows and cash in on one or two of the STJ waves for a huge snowstorm. There weren't many examples of in between. 2024 maybe but that was a really odd winter where a strong nino never acted like it and I don't expect that to happen again give the combo of how strong this is and the PDO seeming to be coming off the peak of its cycle.

Someone could make $ them making this available for a fee. I’d use it. But then again I’m weird so maybe there isn’t much demand.