All Activity

Ya its nasty looking.. tomorrow doesnt look any better now.. NWS Boston @NWSBoston · 10m Another plume of wildfire smoke is likely to shift southward into the region in larger concentrations Weds, some of it detectable at the surface. This will again limit temperatures while also bringing hazy skies and a hint of a smoky smell in the air tomorrow.

I wouldn't be surprised if we get severe elevated hail overnight given those morning soundings to our west. Plenty of support for that.

We'll see. We have yet to really see an uptick in TDS/tornado verification in our area. And our radar is well sited to capture stuff to our northwest. Now if it's some moose fart north of the mountains our radar won't see that lofted debris anyway. We do catch "lost" tornadoes sometimes with satellite passes. Like sometime after 2017 a tornado track appeared in the Pemi Wilderness. No idea when it happened, but it's there.

That event caused near-total defoliation of the trees along Rt 302 in Naples, and probably elsewhere that I didn't view. The only other significant defoliating storm was 5-10 miles SE from home, in Rome and New Sharon, on August 30, 2007. Next morning I found 1-2 miles on Rt 27 on the Rome end of Mile Hill as a 2-track thru 6" of leaf salad. Folks there reported up to 4" deep hail in places away from where water flow gathered the ice. Perhaps 2,000 acres were stripped and when the Maine Forest Service forester examined things there, she found considerable debarking, especially in Aspen. Some stripped hemlock did, pines refoliated in the spring, and ash became like bottle-brushes as scores of lateral buds sprouted. Some 2" chunks were reported but along Rt 27 I found only dimes/nickels/few quarters (at 5 PM 24 hours after the storm).

HRRR tries to bring New Hampshire into the game overnight.

Yes to downsloping.

Still waiting on the real show around 22z though.

Looks legit by the way, maybe a tad warm. Checked PWS stations around there and most were in the 100-103F range, even right to the shore.

Not their ensembles

The NWS removed the 30% for thunderstorms late tonight or tomorrow locally so that kinda sucks

Wow! 104F now. Really mixing well there - downsloping effects? Dews are cratering with gusty west winds.

Up to 102F at Oscoda, Michigan. Toronto, Ont. was up to 97F at the top of the hour.

WxWiz will do his best to apply "english" to the risk areas to nudge them closer to CT!

The smoke has moved here. Sun tried and failed to work about noon, and by 1:30 we had that same dingy yellow/brown that dendrite posted. The only thicker smoke I can recall was when I was working at a forest fire. No 90s here; possibly not even 80s.

12z Euro/GFS both pushing the bounds of credibility with that (apparently) unconstrained trough depth around the 21s/22nd ... The indexes have an unusually amplified +PNA numerically signaled in that time range, so some sort of anomaly is okay but ... egads! doesn't have to -3.5 SD, either. I guess in order to balance the hemisphere for all that French rage the models have to hang their asses over somewhere to make the world fair.. lol

The watch now would not be for the big stuff later I think. Marginal svr is psbl this aftn in cntrl/nrn ME. The tor box would be later for far nrn VT/NH, and NW ME.

Dual pol makes it easier w/ the TDS. It really narrows things down and gives confidence, so the NWS may be more inclined to send a survey to the area(s) despite the remote location, And now we have drones to scout out areas that are not accessible by road/foot. And I think at times if a strong TDS is present in a very remote area, the NWS will count that as a tor even if no survey or ground reports.

whoops... Not the first time a part of Maine has been in 10% tor, first time for 10% hatched. But this is the farthest north for 10%. @Winter Wizard I think posted a map a page or two back showing the data from Iowa St

Stranger things have happened! How about this from July 1987? I think I will be a 2.5 mi wide F4 and cross the Continental Divide! https://www.tornadotalk.com/teton-wilderness-wy-tornado-july-21-1987/

@CoastalWx post earlier about watching southwest of where SPC has is looking good. Hourly runs of the HRRR are beginning to get a bit more aggressive with activity back across upstate NY, northern VT, and norther NH. Stuff may even get closer to central VT/NH. May see a southward expansion of the enhanced at 20z

Wait, no or yes? This is the first time for a ME 10% tor risk you mean?

Not sure what the brown shading implies but I'm sure a tornado watch would be most likely. Kind of shocked though only 60% chance of issuance...but that is covering any potential for stuff to pop later afternoon. I think the real concern is more evening and early overnight so may be too early for a watch on that stuff. So we may see a watch soon and then more later

Certainly possible, it is one of the most desolate regions in the entire country and it's rare to get any kind of chaser traffic. Still, that's an impressive streak and more than double the previous. I guess you could say Maine is overdue.

I wonder if they go with a tornado watch?

Neither has VT. NH only one is the Sep 1821 event.