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132 .

lol Sorry next time I’ll wait for my models to come out Next time tell us it’s a freaking foot lol

Euro is later with cold push and quicker with precip. Massive ice/sleet storm for most

That is kuchera though. Not to say the rates couldn’t be a little higher than 10:1 but like Bob said earlier, it’s pretty rare.

According to one source, Suffolk County is the 62nd snowiest county in the US (there are 3244 counties and parishes): https://lawnlove.com/blog/snowiest-counties/ Sounds unlikely to me. There are exactly 62 counties in NYS. There are exactly another 62 counties in VT, NH, ME, MA, & CT (plus 5 in RI, but I'm going with a 62 theme). All the same, I might add "62nd snowiest county in the US" to my sig just for shits and grins. It says so on the Internet.

Ratios baby

The evolution of the HP is key. The GFS/GEM/Icon...the HP is anchored in the Midwest over the top of everything. The AIFS develops a banana HP, which is not exactly what you want in this scenario. A) it allows for a stronger LP to develop and Banana HP is one of the ingredients needed for Miller B's and Miller A/B Hybrids. If you want a true Miller A or overrunning event in the upper south an anchored HP is what you want not a banana.

The Euro is snow for most of the state, a bad ice storm along and south of 40 in East Tennessee that should change to snow.

Euro at 120 .

So I may have underestimated the Euro, we actually DO get a foot. Ji is happy now.

Parkton mesonet now colder than Bittinger. Nice.

Lost of similarities to the CMC at 114 John .

Euro at 108 .

We all want it to show a foot for us...but when you're homeless and somebody offers you a 2 br apartment and not a mansion, you don't fucking complain.

The Euro looks like a blend of the AI and Canadian probably.

The AI models do struggle with strong HPs and I think that’s what we are seeing with both. .

0z Suite Scoreboard >4" vs <4" scoreboard (Euro = 5, Euro AI = 5, GFS AI = 4, GFS = 3, CMC = 2, UKMET = 1, ICON = 1) DC: 11 - 10, more than 4" wins Baltimore: 14 - 7, more than 4" wins Stay tuned for 12z! Good night!

Euro Ice storm all the way to Macon Ga and just inland from Charleston.

Yes. It's really encouraging to have the Euro EPS, Euro, and Euro-AI on our side. Even the Canadian, and UKMET are trying for something. There's clearly a signal for a storm and we're now inside HR 150 for most of the event.

I’m going by your description. Quick hitter and better for south Common dude I know you wanted euro to shoe you 12

If the HP is actually at least close to as strong as the other models are showing, I don’t think the AI models will handle this one well. They tend to underestimate extreme anomalous lows/highs because there aren’t enough examples of them in their training data. The other models being physics based know that, while rare, 1050ish highs can absolutely happen this time of year. We need a combination of strong high pressure and a weak (but not too weak lol) overrunning type system. Any combination of weaker high or super amped up storm hurts us.

It's also snowing in the teens. Wow.

Rock and roll! Not a bad night for the 0z suite at all. Lots still on the table!

Thanks for the PBP, Randy!

Better