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6z RGEM slight shift west as well..NE TN folks may end up with a little something after all

Rgem more amped

3k NAM is either out to lunch or at least trying to bring snow showers/flurries along the TN/NC border counties late this evening/tonight.

They should do better this time.

We’re going to be in trouble when NCEP drops all of the models for just the rrfs.

If there is even snow in the air.

With the temperature now up to 36 in Central Park, only a trace of snow is the most likely outcome today. A coating is a lower probability.

Roofus

Roofus

Trend is clear as day on the NAM. The angle of moisture fetch off the gulf has improved dramatically. I think the NW portion of that precip shield is likely under-modeled as well. Between the terrain and the sloped arctic front aiding in lift, it won’t take a ton of moisture to squeeze something out further north and west. Still too early to feel confident in it, but who woulda thought this time last night that we’d still be in the game? Precipitable water values trend on NAM 3km.

3k Nam is also much further north and west

3k Nam is also much further north and west. Nice for Cape.

YES!

Nam !

The vort didn’t quite curl like 00z but everything started west so the end result was pretty similar to 00z…it was heftier south of here. Maybe a bit better on south shore as well.

Wow

Chased convection at the last minute.. if that wasn't there it would have been a big hit

6z roofus also

Roofus

Much better and probably not done trending

Nam cranking up there

NAM way west oh my goodness, lol

Nam so far

NAM is going to be a good hit