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I really thought this was going to be a cat 5 now especially given the satellite estimates and what data they're getting now. So confused.

I’m thinking this is probably a 5, but recon needs more time to confirm.

2:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 Location: 16.3°N 77.7°W Moving: W at 5 mph Min pressure: 926 mb Max sustained: 150 mph

923.2mb extrapolated (might not be dead center) Peak FL of 140kt Peak SFMR of 148 SE to NW pass

Um……923mb in the S/SE quad of the eye? Oh boy, this just escalated quickly. Wonder what the NE quad measures.

Would make it the strongest ATL basin hurricane on record by max winds…

Well we’re about to find out lol

Dvorak Technique says “hold my beer”

Total guess, 912mb/145kt (165mph)

I’m thinking 915mb and 170mph, question is where it’ll fall since 170 is not an advisory strength, so 165/175.

Thinking they find pressure in the 910mb-920mb range. Winds in the 170-180mph range. Strictly based on satellite and infrared imagery, also factoring in ADT estimates.

165 920-924 range

Alright, let’s guess what recon finds, anyone? Pressure/max winds guesses

Looks like north turn may be in process of happening now

I noticed the HAFS-A in particular has been insistent since 06z in creating this moat before landfall when the hurricane is near peak strength in the 910s. doesn’t weaken the storm at all once the moat forms either.

I finally got to radar and while the eyewall looks tremendous there is also a huge moat starting to appear.

I highly doubt this is still 145 mph.

Two insane IR loops with lightning data for posterity. New IR and the older AVN. No doubt about it, Melissa's eyewall is absolutely cranking at present.

T 8.0 https://x.com/ryanmaue/status/1982653620777824436?s=61

Thank you Jesus. Lets see what Melissa is made of.

Straight freak mode. Let’s go recon

Here's another Grand Targhee live webcam! You can ALWAYS count on the Jebman to keep you in the snow!

Perhaps.They're definitely en route again based on flight path now.

Wait, recon made another turn. They seem to be trying to find a flight path around the strong convection on the east side of the CDO.

For posterity