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Robust but south. Gotta imagine the Euro and GFS meet in the middle as they usually do.

Euro trying for nj again. Lol

Dude trust me. Scotty knows

Unnamed Subtropical Storm 1968 85mph 979mb

Probably a dumb question but what was the strongest sub tropical storm to ever happen in the Atlantic?

Maybe it’s getting a clue, but there’s still a ways to go before we have our well formed low. At the moment it’s still a highly strung out weak low attached to a frontal boundary.

Wonder if Polo being Polo is downstream pumping to cause a bit more atmospheric friction?... It was not forecasted to get as strong as it did Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

If you don't care, why post? There are people who care. It'll fascinating watching the Titans at MetLife Stadium during a huge wind and rain storm on Sunday afternoon.

0Z UKMET goes NNE to eastern end of LI and then into SE New England while weakening substantially Mon-Tue

Does anyone actually care if this storm hits us or not? For me could care less moderate winds rain we don’t need and coastal flooding is always dangerous

Nam doesn't look to bad either. Put it in the books. Tracks much better concrnsus tonight

Throw in the cmc trying to play with the others but it's too shy and stays out by the cape.

Yep icon gfs and euro are all identical with exact placement only thing to figure out but they all stall, go west then loop then do something.

Icon nearly stalls out dropping pressure south of montauk point till ally 12 Sunday then starts crawling west ish

Crazy to think the nws is/ was going with a east storm even as the trend was clear as day since 6z today

Nice soaking rain at times today afterall. Finished with .31 here

I’d like this thing to go OTS, but considering the time frame, I’m expecting something of a “landfall” in RI, the high pressure to the north is going to be the determining factor and how it splits. Another smaller, yet important factor, is going to be how strong the Low deepens upon their “dance.”

Picking up on the stronger high pressure…? And we are getting closer in now, maybe it’s getting a clue? And yes…that 1041 high is very impressive, have we ever/how often have we seen that in September while a system will be climbing the coast?

These are non-trivial probabilities for TC formation of the E Coast, and yet nothing in the TWO? Let me put it this way, you can't highlight areas w/ 0/0 chance on the tropical wx outlook (they do do this) and ignore something like this. And beyond the the model probs, from a empirical fcst skill/experience, such a formation is quite possible. So objective end subjective combined, that's how to do it!

The uncertainty is what’s has my “brain-a-tickin’

Those TC probs are *non-trivial*. Certainly enough to say something in the TWO, so you see what I mean. This is not a far-fetched situation from a model probability standpoint, and lots of decision go/no go as from model probs. As I like to say, you can't have it both ways here! Highlight systems w/ 0/0 percent chance and then ignore something like this? And beyond the the model probs, from a empirical fcst skill/experience, such a formation is quite possible. So objective end subjective combined, that's how to do it!