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If morning convection is mostly elevated and north of I-96 there will be more pristine soundings. A squall line coming through from the west too early in the day is also a problem.

Ray, suppose the orientation doesn't change, you just multiply the anomalies by x1.5.. do you think 09-10 would have been a bad Winter?

Oh in that case, I'd love to relive it an spike my nerf football.

Right.

No, not far, but not ideal....and couldn't catch a break.

Hoping the cap holds tonight so we can get a better TOR threat tomorrow, SPC and IWX are thinking sig tors are possible if there's not a ton of morning crapvection

Atlanta, especially airport south through the S burbs, had a major snowstorm in Jan of 1992.

Goes hand-in-hand...weaker overall would have likely diminished the degree of warmth that leaked east.

By weaker you mean in Nino 1+2 and 3?

I guess.. Not too far from ideal though. Nino 1+2 is almost cold there v! impressive!

Yes, it had some favorable traits.....it was basin-wide, not east based, but if it were a bit weaker we may have been able to prevent that warmth in the east that ultimately sank our battle ship. There was probably some bad luck there, too....so I see what you are saying about being too literal. I probably oversimplified it due to the perfunctory nature of the dialogue to prove a point. I'm more nuanced in the actual analysis.

That's the kind of photograph I'd frame and hang on my wall.

Yes. I will grant you that 1991 could have ended up a but better than it did, but there was definitely still a god bit of warmth to the east that raised the probability of the shit outcome that we had.

The way this played out in the PNA region isn't too far from what a Nino 3.4-based El Nino should do See how the N. pacific low is directly north of the El Nino

Too much warmth in the east.

Like I said, too much warmth.

Yeah basin wide is warmer than west-based, but I'm pointing out that 91-92 Winter warmth was an anomaly in an event with that orientation.

Did Hubbardston throw down any salt? Cheap bastards.

Right....events that strong always have warmth in region 1.2. Okay.....I get that. But that doesn't make me wrong....good luck getting one that doesn't.

NAO part of that composite is "other factors", not completely connected to ENSO imo.

Spring peepers triggered here… Not even a little bit I mean they’re like loud choruses driving down the roads

That is a composite only a mother could love.

Wow....I really sucked in February; I'm sure Roger is laughing at me from Heaven right now.

The only way I can see that making a difference is if it's spilling over into Nino 3 and 1+2. If Nino 1+2 is +2, instead of +0.5.. because of the physics of that situation support a CONUS ridge