For the next several weeks we will have an increased risk for coastal impacts from several coastal and ocean storms. Coastal flooding, high waves, rain, winds and beach erosion will be the main impacts, with chances for snow/ice and mixed precip further west in western New England. Stay tuned, rain for now, it is not a guarantee.
I have drawn a graphic illustrating the next few weeks of the weather pattern across North America. The northern hemisphere will favor a regime towards an evolving combination pattern of a -NAO/-AO/+PNA. The red in the picture represents the presence of ridging in the mid-upper levels and the blue represents the troughing areas of low pressure in the mid to upper levels. The ridging over western CONUS and eastern PAC ocean along with ridging across AK, to northwestern Canada northeastward to
From HYA eastward snow becomes enhanced by northerly surface winds and brings some snow accumulations to the region from Hyannis to Provincetown tonight after 6 pm EST. Models show some accumulation, maybe about 1-2" of snow.
Today we will experience extreme weather at its finest. Severe flash freeze is setting up to enter the region as soon as later this morning, when temperatures sweep west to east with a 20-30F temperature change in the next 18-20 hours. It will happen suddenly with the change of the winds vector. AS the warm balmy 50+ degree southwesterly winds will change to a violent northwest cold dry bone chilling cold arctic air howling over 30mph. Rain will change to snow and temps will bottom out in th
Surface temperatures in the Deep South, Northeast, and the Southeast will lie between the low 60s to low 40s. Temperatures in the lower troposphere will lie in the high 50s to low 30s tomorrow. Colder temperatures will lie in the high single digits anf high teens at 850mb. This pressure level plays an important role in weather forecasting. Low level stratiform clouds will form over portions of the upper MI valley where elevated snow will occur. Also moisture content in this atmosphere will be mo
Strong anomalously cold air heading towards the CONUS, eastern 2/3rds, east of the Rockies,
Very warm air across SW CONUS, including the states of CA, NV and NM.
Fire dangers will continue for the areas impacted to this date.
Very little mountain snow/rain for CA, OR and WA.
MT to Great Lakes and Northeastern US will see above normal snowfall, perhaps quite intense snowfalls in the coming weeks
November will bring snow and cold for most of the eastern CONUS
While models decide their differences in the next day or so with the incoming precipitation threats, the one thing the pattern is adjusting to show is the appearance of arctic air masses invading the Northern 2/3rds of the CONUS. While large sustained +PNA is present, we will be getting some major league arctic air invading our region and the eastern 1/3rd of the country. While CA and the SW US bakes in record heat and fire weather, the MS Valley eastward will be experiencing the first cold wi
It is becoming increasingly clear, that the models are showing more confidence in an interior New England, mainly northwestern New England snowfall is going to happen later Thursday into Friday morning. The quick nature of the system, what the weather world calls a progressive storm, is something that won't be spectacular by any stretch of the imagination, but could have some moderate travel impacts where it does indeed snow and accumulate. The one thing that is blatantly obvious in the weathe
Models are still undecided on the details as well as the synoptic scale pattern evolving the next 4-5 days across the Northeastern US. Residents should watch the evolving forecasts the next 36 hours across the area, but should not be alarmed, especially southeast of I-95 corridor.
Today, this morning in New England, Monday is a rather slow, unwelcoming day. Most New England Patriots fans are waking to an early sun rise, with the knowledge that their New England Patriots took a big loss on the chin from the Baltimore Ravens before their week 10 bye. With the knowledge that there are weaknesses on the team's defense and offense, we pay attention to the weather scene the next two weeks before another game is played against the Philadelphia Eagles. I awake this Monday morn
In less than 24 hours, the Patriots are scheduled to play the Baltimore Ravens. The current weather forecast is quite pleasant for Baltimore area. Temperature expected to be in the mid-40s throughout the game, dew points in the lower 30s, with relative humidity in the dry zone of around 48 %. No precipitation is expected as there are no weather systems in the area for the game tomorrow. Frost could build throughout the game across grassy areas and colder surfaces. Winds should be a non-fact
Snow from a potential coastal storm is looking like a distinct potential, nothing serious or imminent, just a potential. Given the long term nature of the snow event possibility and given how volatile models can be run to run, we need to wait to see some resemblance of consistency start to mount up in the coming days. We just aren't there yet. Cold is coming and perhaps arctic in origin. That is as much a given as anything right now. Have fun this weekend, enjoy in the climate weather, near
Latest GFS and model consensus showing signs that winter is ready to make a return. Today will begin the cold pouring into the eastern CONUS. BY the end of the seven day forecast, next Friday, a coastal system is showing up on the models. However, I am not sold on this potential at this time. There is a lot of disagreement on the potential location and track and intensity of said storm. We will know more by the end of the weekend into the Monday timeframe of next week.
**Alert Level** (High), potential snowstorm impact in the next three days, high!
Parts of the Denver region could see multiple feet of snow in the mountains and in the city region. Snowfall amounts of 10-30" is possible as the period ends 00z Wednesday, or Tuesday 8 pm EDT. Multiple model consensus shows a strong trough entering CA now and moving over the area by Monday afternoon into Tuesday. This will lead to leeward cyclogenesis to occur as the trough tilts more neutral. This will le
The Climate Prediction Center is more than 50/50 confident, precisely 55-60 % chance that neutral ENSO pattern will persist until Spring 2020. We are becoming more confident on an equal opportunity winter for above normal snowfall from PVD to BOS to Portland ME. I will have further updates first week into the first ten days of November.
Multiple model consensus suggests that the current evolving pattern for the Equatorial Pacific Ocean basin wide is favoring neutral-ENSO pattern. CPC suggests there is a more than 50/50 chance of a neutral ENSO persisting until Spring months of 2020. This should favor a strong winter favoring above normal snowfall for eastern to central New England with a below average temperature climate. Long range models suggest the pattern evolving this weekend will lead to a prolonged cold air mass. Mor
Hello southern New Englanders, this evening update is about the latest guidance showing a potential pattern change storm erupting in the 5-10 day range. This storm signals the erupt change to a colder and maybe perhaps more stable pattern towards Halloween and the change into the month of November. Deep cold is on tap for after the next week. Stay Tuned! Winter is still around the corner.
Models in the long range, are beginning to show a winter like pattern beginning late OCT, sometime after the 27th. In the next two weeks of OCT, warm air is settling in after our mid-week miller B storm center offshore of MVY sometime WED night. Cold air will dump into the central Northern CONUS north of 40 north latitude.
The next four days present an unique challenge for weather forecasters. Models present a blocked upper-level pattern which ensues at the surface as well. A large ridge in Atlantic Canada will keep the coastal low pressure blocked at the surface and rather stalls or meanders off the coast near the New England storm benchmark location or 40N:70W. Winds will increase after 12z tomorrow into 12z Friday, they should peak between 55-70mph winds at the coastline between 12z Thursday and 12z Friday.
Today radar imagery shows Ocean Effect precipitation is developing and falling over the Outer Arm of Cape Cod this early afternoon. Radar shows flow is out of the north to northwest with rather cooler air mass moving over the low 60 degree ocean waters over the bay. Sprinkles and a few misty periods have developed. Radar image below shows this well.https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined