bluewave

Newark only made it to 90° this spring which is the 3rd coolest since the warmer pattern began back in 2010. While the planet is setting records for SSTs daily, we are one of the few places with a cold pool nearby. So it goes to show how strong that easterly flow has been. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Mar through May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 2020 86 0 2014 88 0 2024 90 8 2019 90 0 2015 91 0 2012 92 0 2011 92 0 2023 93 0 2018 94 0 2017 94 0 2013 94 0 2010 95 0 2021 96 0 2016 96 0 2022 98 0

Tough to keep track of all these rainfall records in recent years. https://x.com/tararosenblum/status/1793651432765186428

While we are averaging above normal, the high end temps here this spring have been muted. Places like Newark will finish spring near the low end of the 90° day count. Plenty of rainfall and convection like this morning along with enhanced onshore flow. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Mar through May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 1991 8 0 2 1986 6 0 3 2002 5 0 - 1959 5 0 4 2022 4 0 - 2021 4 0 - 2018 4 0 - 2000 4 0 - 1987 4 0 - 1977 4 0 - 1965 4 0 - 1939 4 0 - 1936 4 0 5 2023 3 0 - 2017 3 0 - 2016 3 0 - 2010 3 0 - 2009 3 0 - 2001 3 0 - 1999 3 0 - 1996 3 0 - 1993 3 0 - 1992 3 0 - 1985 3 0 - 1974 3 0 - 1964 3 0 - 1962 3 0 - 1934 3 0 - 1931 3 0 6 2015 2 0 - 2013 2 0 - 2012 2 0 - 2007 2 0 - 2004 2 0 - 1998 2 0 - 1994 2 0 - 1990 2 0 - 1979 2 0 - 1976 2 0 - 1970 2 0 - 1957 2 0 - 1956 2 0 - 1949 2 0 - 1944 2 0 - 1943 2 0 - 1942 2 0 - 1941 2 0 7 2024 1 9

Nice Canadian airmass for the cooler weather fans by this time next week. So we still haven’t reached the point of extended heat yet. It’s been a challenge with all the onshore flow and clouds along with the rain.

The HRRR has convection with a MCV.

Yeah, it was my warmest day of the spring so far at 82° here just east of KHVN.

Just enough SE flow at Newark today so POU was warmer for a 2nd day in a row. THE POUGHKEEPSIE NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MAY 22 2024... VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD: 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD: 1931 TO 2024 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 89 2:37 PM 98 1941 73 16 77 MINIMUM 58 5:00 AM 31 2002 50 8 45 AVERAGE 74 61 13 61 THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MAY 22 2024... VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1931 TO 2024 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 87 1241 PM 98 1992 74 13 78 MINIMUM 64 457 AM 44 1957 56 8 56 2002 AVERAGE 76 65 11 67

Memorial Day could feature near record tropical PWATS approaching 2.00” for our area along with near record highs close to 100° in Florida. There will be a deepening low crossing the Great Lakes. So strong to severe storms could be an issue with very heavy downpours and possible flooding where the best training sets up.

Yeah, I just noticed the same thing.

We would be closer to 100° rather than 90° if the historic heat dome over Mexico didn’t get suppressed to our south across Florida. https://x.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1792912484979835203 Sweltering heat looks to continue across Mexico with the ECMWF ensemble mean showing mid level height anomalies as high as 4.7 STD DEV above the climate of just the past 20 years. Suggests a probability of ~1 in 769K

Yeah, it’s probably related in some way to the many marine heatwaves across the planet right now. The Euro shifts back to cooler and wetter again from Memorial Day into the start of June. So no pattern change showing up just yet. May 27 to June 3 EPS forecast

We got a south based blocking pattern in the summer of 2020 which was really wet so it held the 90° days down at Newark.

The blocking pattern became more south based over the winter which featured the record warmth.

This record blocking pattern near Hudson Bay has been in place since last May. It’s why we had a cooler summer last year. The only extended warmth with this pattern has been during the winter when it linked up with the Southeast ridge. So we need to see this pattern weaken in order to finally get some extended summer warmth. All the warm ups since March 20th have lasted a few days before more rains and onshore flow. Also notice how this pattern has resulted in the only cool spot in the Atlantic sea of record warmth has been to our east. https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/1793089595552456781

It was their warmest winter on record followed by the warmest spring so far. Time Series Summary for WATERTOWN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to May 20 Missing Count 1 2024-05-20 38.1 0 2 2012-05-20 37.0 0 3 1998-05-20 35.5 0 - 1953-05-20 35.5 2 4 2023-05-20 34.8 0 - 2002-05-20 34.8 0 5 1991-05-20 34.6 1 6 2016-05-20 34.2 0 7 2017-05-20 34.1 0 8 2013-05-20 34.0 1 9 1952-05-20 33.5 2 10 2021-05-20 33.1 2 11 2020-05-20 33.0 0 12 2010-05-20 32.9 2