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Predict the number of tornadoes in 2011.


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#36
IWXwx

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I had a terrible guess. This why I could never be a meteorologist. People think I should. But I suck at math and science.


I get the same thing. I tell people that 2 things keep me from being a met.......math and science. :lol:

#37
Hoosier

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June and July numbers are in.  159 in June and 102 in July.  Interesting to note that the actual July total was higher than the preliminary count of 92.  Yearly total through July stands at 1488.

Edit:  looks like it was changed to 160 and 101.

#38
Hoosier

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51 in September and 22 in October. Actual total through October stands at 1625. If we take 90% of the prelim for Nov/Dec, it would bring the total to 1691 which would be just short of 2008 which had 1692.

#39
JoMo

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Looks like OhioValleyWx was closest with 1676.

kab2791 had a late guess of 1717 though.

#40
Hoosier

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51 in September and 22 in October.  Actual total through October stands at 1625.  If we take 90% of the prelim for Nov/Dec, it would bring the total to 1691 which would be just short of 2008 which had 1692.


SPC map has 1689 in 2008 so I'm not sure which is correct. Bottom line it will be close.

#41
andyhb

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Either way, it will be an absolutely historic year.

#42
Hoosier

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Looks like the actual numbers for Nov/Dec may have exceeded the preliminary reports. SPC now has 1718 for the entire year which would beat out 2008 and make it the second most active year on record, although this is still subject to revision.

#43
AcworthWx

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Looks like the actual numbers for Nov/Dec may have exceeded the preliminary reports. SPC now has 1718 for the entire year which would beat out 2008 and make it the second most active year on record, although this is still subject to revision.


Any update to the totals or did SPC finalize the totals?

#44
Hoosier

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Any update to the totals or did SPC finalize the totals?


Not yet.  They are saying early March.  You can follow it here:

http://spc.noaa.gov/...nthly/newm.html

#45
AcworthWx

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Thanks for the link, Hoosier!:D



#46
AcworthWx

  • Hopefully this brings the Cold and Snowy MOJO!!!!

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Looks like the actual numbers for Nov/Dec may have exceeded the preliminary reports. SPC now has 1718 for the entire year which would beat out 2008 and make it the second most active year on record, although this is still subject to revision.


The SPC site now has the total at 1894. Do you think there is some bad data in there that is causing the big differential (In just a matter of days, no less)? If it stays true, this will be the most active year on record. Also as long as it is finalized (totals), April will record 875 tornadoes which is an astonishing 46.198% of the yearly total. April-May accounted for a whopping 65.733% of the yearly total, while March-June accounted for 80.095%. This was second to 2003 (1374) April-June timeframe which was 84.206% of the yearly total. I enjoyed looking through your blog site, and think it would be interesting to run the same experiments for the country.

#47
Hoosier

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The SPC site now has the total at 1894. Do you think there is some bad data in there that is causing the big differential (In just a matter of days, no less)? If it stays true, this will be the most active year on record. Also as long as it is finalized (totals), April will record 875 tornadoes which is an astonishing 46.198% of the yearly total. April-May accounted for a whopping 65.733% of the yearly total, while March-June accounted for 80.095%. This was second to 2003 (1374) April-June timeframe which was 84.206% of the yearly total. I enjoyed looking through your blog site, and think it would be interesting to run the same experiments for the country.


I'm seeing 1725 at the link I posted.  I guess the numbers will continue to change.  Where do you see 1894?

Thanks for the compliment. :)

#48
AcworthWx

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I'm seeing 1725 at the link I posted. I guess the numbers will continue to change. Where do you see 1894?

Thanks for the compliment. :)


Sorry, I was beat last night when I was going through the #'s and my analysis. I ended up using the "Tornado Report totals". :axe: I can be a bit of a doofus sometimes. :wacko: I'll have to go back through and input the right totals.

#49
Hoosier

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Final number looks like it might be 1691

#50
andyhb

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Beats out 2008 by 2...



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